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Trends and Forecasting

Today’s speed to market of new offerings and shortening product lifecycles place a unique pressure on businesses to stay ahead.  Consumer purchasing behavior is shifting more rapidly than ever.

To succeed, businesses need accurate sales forecasts -- based on robust analysis -- and the most up-to-date purchasing and market trends.

We deliver detailed forecasts of consumer demand for technology devices, as well as global technology market trends. 

Our forecasts are built using the world’s largest sample of point of sales data, combined with our global expertise and local knowledge. This combination provides our clients uniquely granular and timely forecasts of future demand – forecasting what products consumers will purchase, in what volume, at what price, and where.  

Forecasting for investors and capital markets

Institutional investors face pressure to perform. To succeed, businesses need visibility to significant trends at the earliest stage(s). Businesses need to acquire reliable and compliant information on where to invest. 

We provide investors with robust forecasts using the world’s largest sample of point of sales data. We predict and document turning points in consumer demand, providing regular, detailed company analyses on technology hardware, semiconductor and consumer durable companies. 

Our forecasts allow investors to make successful recommendations backed up by credible and compliant sources.

Latest insights

Here you can find the latest insights for Trends and Forecasting industry. View all insights

    • 08/20/18
    • Technology
    • Digital Market Intelligence
    • Online Pricing Intelligence
    • Trends and Forecasting
    • Global
    • English

    What drives price movements of tech devices?

    It is a common assumption among consumers that the retail price of flagship tech devices and features will gradually drop over time. Moreover, it is often assumed that the release of new models accelerates the price decline for the, now obsolete, previous models. That means consumers often think it is better to wait a couple of months before buying the latest tech device. But how much is price affected? We looked at a huge range of online pricing over time, to answer this question.

    How far do the prices of tech devices and features really fall, over time?

    The worldwide TV market recently saw the introduction of exciting new display technologies, such as OLED and QLED. Looking at the average price of three 55 inch OLED/QLED TVs (Samsung, LG, Panasonic), we see that the average online price has fallen by 34% between October 2017 and July 2018. Other consumer electronics categories show similar trends, but to lesser extents. For example, the online retail price of a laptop featuring a Core i7 processor has fallen 8%, on average, since the beginning of the year. Similarly, the average price of a smart watch has fallen 6% year-on-year (YoY) to August 2018. Overall, there is a considerable degree of variation between different products, reflecting their peculiar product characteristics and strategies, but data suggests a general downward trend over time for ageing technology features.

    Do new model releases accelerate price declines for older models?

    Sim-free smartphones offer a great case study in this area. So, let’s look at the impact that the release of two flagship devices (Galaxy S9 and iPhone 8) had on the average online prices of previous models (Galaxy S8 and iPhone 7). The release of Samsung’s Galaxy S9 in March 2018 seems to have had a noticeable influence on the price of the Galaxy S8, which decreased 14% in the following 5 months. A similar, albeit weaker, dynamic applies to Apple. The iPhone 8 release in September 2017 induced a decline in the price of an iPhone 7 of 6% in the following 5 months. It is worth noting that the average online retail price of the Galaxy S8 and iPhone 7 does follows a long-term decline trend (the iPhone7 lost 7% and the Galaxy S8 lost 15% YoY, compared to July 2018 prices), but it seems clear that the release of new models certainly had an influence on price movements.

    However, this is only half of the story…

    The price variations we tracked during the considered period highlight a key contrast between the approaches of the two brands. Samsung’s device is subject to higher seasonal fluctuations, while Apple focuses on limited price variations in key periods (e.g. Black Friday). This shows that, although there is a long-term price trend in place, brand strategies and retail promotions can have a big influence on average prices and drive considerable discounts. This dynamic is even more apparent if we overlay the average online retail price and the lowest online retail price. We can see from the chart below how promotional prices can cut deep under average prices and anticipate the price decline trend by many months. For example, Galaxy S8’ lowest price touched £550 in November 2017, 6 months before the average price reached the same level.

    Conclusions

    The assumption is true, that there is a general trend of price decline over time key tech devices, which is influenced by the faster release of new and upgraded models. However, long-term price movements are also heavily influenced by brand strategies and retail promotions, which can drive deeper price cuts across a shorter amount of time. This has important implications for both consumers and marketers: For a consumer wanting to buy the latest technology or a newer model, looking out for key promotional periods is a better strategy than waiting for the price to drop over time. For Retailers and manufacturers bringing new technology and new ranges to market, the key lies in understanding consumers’ expectation that prices of older models will fall, and their consequent spending behaviour, based on that belief.
    • 06/29/18
    • Market Opportunities and Innovation
    • Trends and Forecasting
    • Global
    • English

    UK Consumer Confidence drops two points to -9 in June

    Consumers in pre-Brexit UK are less confident about the economy and seem set on self-imposed austerity
    • 06/25/18
    • Travel and Hospitality
    • Trends and Forecasting
    • Global
    • English

    Key insights within travel: Three current themes for exploration

    With summer fast approaching – yes, it officially started on June 21st – Americans once again will be vacationing in record numbers. Recent forecasts estimate that over 246 million passengers will fly domestically between June and August (which averages to over 2.5 million per day). Flying of course is not the only travel option – with road trips being a normal part of the American genre. In fact, according to recent research from GfK Consumer Life, 67% of US leisure travelers have done so in a vehicle (vs. 54% traveling by plane). As more consumers look to travel, services such as Airbnb and Couchsurfing have become more popular – allowing many travelers to specifically land on what type of vacation they truly want. Here are three current travel trends that brands can leverage to further attract the traveler target.

    Surprise destinations

    Six in ten Americans now feel “the places where you spend your vacations” is an expression of themselves. This is now ahead of “the home you live in”, which has historically been on top when comparing both attributes (though consumers, led by Millennials are moving away from placing importance on the home). According to Airbnb’s own travel data, top destinations within the US are still considered mainstays (i.e. ‘tourist-y’) – places like New York City, Orlando, etc. However when looking at top trending destinations – those that have increased the most on searches and bookings from 2017 to 2018 – a different picture emerges. Middle American cities such as Indianapolis, Minneapolis, and Columbus, OH move towards the top of the list – one can assume that travelers are undoubtedly looking for a different experience in these places. The psyche of ‘been there, done that’ and/or ‘taking it slow’ could definitely be emerging among consumers. In addition, the ‘value for dollars’ equation probably gets solved easier when visiting places that are undoubtedly more affordable.

    ‘Last Chance’ Tourism

    Americans are also acknowledging that the world is rapidly changing today: 21% cite ‘global climate change’ as a top-three concern (from a list of 21), and +6 pts from just 2015. In turn, another travel trend that has gained popularity is the notion of ‘last chance’ tourism – visiting a place before the relevant experiences, or the destination itself, is gone forever. Many tourists have visited the Great Barrier Reef in Australia to see it “before it’s gone”, which may or may not happen anytime soon. Cuba has experienced increased tourism recently – with the idea that the native culture within the country might change if and when more Americans start traveling there. Authenticity (i.e. a feeling of ‘realness’) always seems to have a place within consumer sentiments – nearly seven in ten American feel authenticity as a ‘personal value’ is extremely/very important (consistently ranking it in the top-five among a list 50 personal values in recent years). The novelty factor will continue to be a hook for travels, as 69% of Americans agree, “I am always eager to see new places and do different things”. On the domestic side, a few US national parks are playing into this trend.

    Food and travel always mix

    Think of the last time you shared your travel experience with someone (or vice versa) – questions like “how was the food?” and “where did you eat?” were probably a part of the conversation. Well then, it’s probably not a surprise that 70% of Americans travelers agree, “I always like to experience local culture and foods when I travel”. And now, newer experiences such as food tours and cooking classes are increasingly sought after by travelers (Tripadvisor says both experiences rose ~50% in 2017 among US travelers). Coinciding again with the ‘sharing economy’ or ‘access economy’, offerings such as Meal Sharing and EatWith also allow for more local & authentic food experiences. As most of us all like to travel one way or the other, expect more and more consumers to curate the travel experience they truly desire. Companies can leverage these three areas of opportunity and offer solutions that will continue to appeal to the traveler mindset.
    • 06/05/18
    • Retail
    • Technology
    • Trends and Forecasting
    • Global
    • English

    Redefining forecasting

    Download our whitepaper and discover the three most important factors for spot-on forecasting: continuity, accuracy, and granularity. It’s your guide to getting it right. 
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