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Welcome to the gfkconsult regional outlook series.
Maximize regional growth opportunities in a challenging global climate with market insights and strategies for senior executives
The impact of the global polycrisis brings new challenges for LATAM, just as it does for every other region. However, the intensity of the various geopolitical and socioeconomic crises, and the ways in which they have been faced by consumers, retailers and manufacturers, are different in LATAM from those found in other regions.
There are also variations by LATAM country, with some nations seeing tangible benefits. For example, there is currently increased demand for food product exports from Brazil and Argentina, due to supply chain constraints in Europe caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. This situation has boosted food sales for these two LATAM countries.
Conversely, other nations and sectors have struggled. This is especially the case for those affected by localized crises, such as domestic political instability or natural disaster, on top of global issues such as inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war, and climate change.
For Tech & Durables (T&D), the pent-up consumer demand across all LATAM countries remains the main challenge in the face of a wider short-term buying power crisis. As in other regions, rising prices are lengthening the traditional product renewal cycle, with many consumers restricting T&D purchases to essentials-only. New tactics are needed to rejuvenate these sales, such as promoting the product renewal cycle – persuading and incentivizing consumers to upgrade or replace products that were bought during the COVID-19 crisis.
Despite ongoing economic fluctuations, the LATAM region as a whole offers genuine growth opportunities in 2023 for both established T&D manufacturers and retailers, and those hoping to enter the market and/or expand into new categories.
In this report, we provide expert consumer and market insights backed by data science, to help T&D retailers and manufacturers refine their LATAM strategies and plan ahead to optimize growth in the context of the current challenging environment.
2023 Market Disruption: A regional response to a global polycrisis
With every sector reeling from the effects of global and local crises, it is unsurprising that LATAM countries are having short-term social and economic issues.
However, it's not all doom and gloom, as there are clear signs for optimism and growth opportunities amidst all the challenges.
Favorable exchange rates are attracting importers, while a growing middle class drives demand for diverse products. Increased online connectivity leads to a higher need for tech and smart home devices, further expanding market potential. And from a cultural perspective, LATAM consumers have consistently demonstrated an impressive resilience to inflation and an ability to purchase goods, even in hard times.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the issues at hand and how LATAM has responded.
The rise of the ‘phygital’ customer journey
As retailers around the world closed their doors during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, LATAM consumers turned to e-commerce out of necessity. In 2019, just 24% of T&D purchases were made online. By 2022, this had risen to 46% – and is predicted to remain at this level for 2023. In Brazil, LATAM’s strongest economy, online sales grew +8%, rising from 16% in 2019 to 24% in 2022.
In fact, the combined phygital and online purchase journey currently triggers 75% of the total T&D purchase journeys in Brazil. So, for Brazilian manufacturers and retailers at least, an online profile is mandatory to communicating and initiating interactions with potential buyers.
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The pandemic meant Brazilian consumers were forced to overcome their fear of e-commerce and start buying online. Online sales remain strong in 2023 – but with a different customer journey. As the most digitized country in the region, this serves as a good benchmark for LATAM strategic planning.
The ‘physical versus digital’ war is a thing of the past. What we are seeing now is a much more complex customer journey, with multiple touchpoints across offline and digital for a single purchase. Indeed, the journey itself has now become more relevant than traditional channel segmentation.”Henrique MascarenhasCommercial Director Brazil, GfK -
For example, a customer with a broken smartphone needs one right now. They will research pricing and availability online and then buy from a physical store to get the product on the same day. Someone looking to upgrade from a 4G to a 5G model, on the other hand, will take more time to research different makes and models, product features, pricing, service availability and so on. They may use a combination of digital and offline channels to do this and could end up buying online or in-store.”Henrique MascarenhasCommercial Director Brazil, GfK
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Retailers and T&D manufacturers need to understand and adapt to these new types of omnichannel buying journeys to provide a high quality, low/no friction customer experience at every touchpoint. The purchase journey is about more than just the channels, and the pandemic has shown us that. As more people started using digital options, the control over the buying process shifted from retailers to the customers themselves.”Henrique MascarenhasCommercial Director Brazil, GfK
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war
The economic shockwaves of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have significantly impacted LATAM. Supply chains in food, fertilizer and energy markets have been disrupted. The effects vary by nation, depending on whether countries are net importers or exporters of affected products, and on varying levels of social inequality and financial volatility.
Some LATAM countries have benefited from the war, for example by filling the export gap left by Russian and Ukrainian wheat and corn, which previously accounted for 30% of the world’s product. New markets have opened up for Brazil and Argentina, which now export wheat to Morocco and Algeria respectively.
A unique response to inflation
Inflation levels are hurting consumer wallets the world over and LATAM is no exception. But there is one big difference: they are inured to inflation more than any other region due to repeated exposure over the last few decades. In the 1980s, Brazil saw inflation levels reach 2% per day and there have been several other crises since.
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On the surface, LATAM consumers react to inflation like everyone else: they tighten their belts. They buy cheaper brands, use less energy and try to find other ways to save and make money. The difference is the speed with which they make these changes – they are used to inflation and have learned how to face it. Because of this, they react much faster than consumers in other regions.”Henrique MascarenhasCommercial Director Brazil, GfK
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Increasing the available payment options is a ‘must’ for T&D retailers. To do this effectively, retailers must understand the financial challenges their target markets are facing. What is their average monthly disposable income and how much of this can they afford to spend on finance payments? How many months’ credit do they need: 12, 24, 36 or more? it is important to think in terms of what fits the consumer’s budget rather than the total price of the product.”Felipe MendesManaging Director Latin America, GfK
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“We talked earlier about pent-up demand for T&D products in LATAM. This means that consumers do not only want to buy; they need to do so because items need replacing. However, the poorest segments of our society are constrained not only by their general financial situation, but by the ever-changing micro-economic conditions that dictate levels of demand. T&D retailers must keep their fingers on the economic button in their target markets so they can exploit windows of opportunity as they open up.”Fernando BaialunaHead of gfkconsult Latin America, GfK
Spotlight on Brazil: a new premiumization concept for the middle class
How can manufacturers leverage this opportunity in the face of dwindling disposable incomes? For some brands such as TCL TVs in Brazil, the answer lies in a new approach to premiumization: affordable premium. This involves leading, and most importantly – trusted, brands selling slightly downgraded versions of their star products at mid-tier prices.
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In LATAM, consumers LOVE brands! The GfK Consumer Life Study
shows that between 2020 and 2023, consumers are increasingly motivated by brands and product features rather than promotions. Despite the squeeze on disposable incomes, this remains true. Consumers want to buy, but cannot pay the highest premium prices.
This is a great opportunity for brands who are already established and trusted in countries like Brazil, Mexico and Chile. Competitively priced, high-tech products that are a grade or two below the ‘high premium’ flagship models can tap into the affordable premium market and grow market share whilst remaining profitable. Combined with payment options such as finance, the offer becomes irresistible to the target consumer group.”Felipe MendesManaging Director Latin America, GfK
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It is important to highlight the relativity of what a premium product is and what it signifies to a middle-class LATAM consumer. As noted, consumers are constantly balancing how much they value a product versus how much they can afford to pay in instalments.
It is therefore the consumer’s interpretation of what constitutes ‘premium’ that matters, rather than the manufacturer’s. And the onus is on the manufacturer to assertively define the characteristics of ‘affordable premium,’ to make sure the product’s level of desirability matches the target consumer’s purchasing power at that precise moment in time."Fernando BaialunaHead of gfkconsult Latin America, GfK -
Local manufacturers play a critical role, particularly for small domestic appliance products. While major domestic appliances, TVs, and other categories also present opportunities, it's crucial to consider the costs of importing electronic components for local production. Consumers are increasingly seeking more affordable products, even if it means sacrificing some features and functionalities. However, they still desire top brands. The challenge for retailers is to strike the right balance between the value propositions of top brands and local heroes. Navigating this competitive landscape successfully will be essential for businesses in the region.”Fernando BaialunaHead of gfkconsult Latin America, GfK
The LATAM consumer in 2023
A growing need for trust
Consumer optimism in LATAM is low compared to the rest of the world. On top of the various elements of the polycrisis, this has been exacerbated by the ongoing political instabilities within many LATAM countries. With constant leadership changes between right and left, and a sharp divide between nations supporting opposing sides in the Russia-Ukraine war, consumer confidence levels have plummeted.
When consumers are less confident, they are likely to buy less, especially when it comes to consumer technical goods. Further, with less credit available in the market, they suffer under less favorable loan repayment conditions. Consumers therefore tend to postpone certain purchases — reflected in the higher level of pent-up demand in recent years. Overall, consumers are on edge about their current socio-economic context, and what the future may bring. While data from the March 2023 FGV Consumer Confidence Index confirms that confidence levels are recovering which can stimulate future purchases, consumers also need to feel trust in a brand before they are ready to buy.
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“Trust begins with your target consumers. You need to understand who you are targeting and what matters to them. Whist this will vary by audience and market segment, most consumers, especially the younger generations, want brands that are ‘real’. You need to be genuine and honest – and you need to walk the talk. For example, if your company has said on social media that you are taking steps to help customers through the recession, you must fulfil these promises.
We saw after the 2015/16 recession that FMCG brands that did not keep their word in this respect lost market share. The same principle will apply to T&D brands: if consumers feel a company has betrayed them by not sticking to its stance on climate change, or working conditions, or the war in Ukraine, they won’t buy from them again.
So, whatever your brand voice and messaging might be, make sure they are relevant to and resonate with your target audience – and don’t let them down!”Henrique Mascarenhas.Commercial Director Brazil, GfK
How consumers search for information has changed
Since 2019, there has been a change in LATAM in how consumers search for product information online, especially amongst the 25 to 46 age group. According to gfknewron consumer intelligence, brands and product features have increased in importance (+3 to 4pp) whilst promotions have become less attractive (-5 to 6pp). Consumers are taking a more educated approach to the purchasing process, especially how they use social media.
One notable trend is a rise in the number of searches for product images and hashtags. Another is the growing interest in influencers. What is interesting about the latter is that it tends to be nano influencers (1k to 10k followers), rather than those with huge follower numbers, that are proving to be the most popular.
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Things are simpler in LATAM than in other regions,” explains Felipe Mendes. “We generally have lower income and education levels, so the questions we have about new T&D products are also simpler. Rather than just seeing a famous influencer wearing or using the latest tech, we want to know why they have chosen that product. How are they using it? Where can the consumer buy it? How much does it cost? It is these ‘nuts and bolts’ questions that make this part of the buying journey very different from elsewhere in the world.”Felipe MendesManaging Director Latin America, GfK
Identifying the right channels is just the beginning of an increasingly complex process, as Henrique Mascarenhas explains:
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Consumers go to marketplaces not only to buy, but also to understand the products and why others are talking about them.
First, to position themselves in a crowded landscape, brands must correctly identify which kind of consumer, and which kind of needs, they will address: placing the consumer at the center. Then, this influences which products to deliver, and how and where to communicate."Henrique MascarenhasCommercial Director Brazil, GfK -
While this has been the foundation of all marketing efforts, the complexity of the media landscape and consumer needs and behaviors have increased — necessitating changes in how we address them. Today, marketers need to focus on the journey, not the channel, and they need to be available ‘everywhere’ for their target consumer. This means having to make data-informed choices that focuses efforts on the right consumer profile, at the right time and through the right channels.
Everything begins with a deep understanding of consumers and their needs, then determining how these can be addressed for maximum returns and sustainable growth.”Henrique MascarenhasCommercial Director Brazil, GfK
Brand perception is key
There is also a growing awareness of, and intolerance to, social inequality amongst the younger age groups in LATAM. This has led some consumers to reject US and other Western T&D brands as part of a wider rejection of capitalism.
However, at the same time there is a growth opportunity amongst consumer segments, for example, whose brand perceptions are heavily influenced by nostalgia and a feeling that ‘things were better before.’ This could be advantageous for well-established T&D brands – including US and Western companies – which Gen Z and Millennial consumers have grown up with, and therefore trust.
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Evoking a sense of nostalgia could be a win-win for T&D brands in 2023. Now is the time to tell stories and showcase experiences about brands that make consumers feel safe and comfortable. Gen Z and Millennial consumers in particular want to hear beautiful stories about brands, both because of nostalgia and because they are changing their values to become less materialistic.
Looking back to the ‘good old days’ is a tactic used to great effect by left-wing political parties in LATAM, who talk about how much more you could buy for your money in the past when they were in power. The same principle can be applied to T&D businesses. Picking the right influencers to represent their brands and reflect consumer moods ‘in the moment’ could be a powerful tactic for T&D this year.”Felipe MendesManaging Director Latin America, GfK
Spotlight: opportunities for Chinese T&D brands
For Chinese brands looking to enter the LATAM market or expand into new categories, the rejection of American / Western capitalism amongst segments of LATAM consumers represents a growth opportunity. These brands also have the advantage of combining the high-tech experiences that consumers crave with the mid-tier pricing the middle class can afford, enabling them to target the affordable premium segment.
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Since 2019, we have witnessed notable growth of global brands from China in Latin America, such as Xiaomi, Hisense, TCL, and Midea. Latin American consumers are young, practical, and open to adopting new brands they are unfamiliar with. They become fans of Chinese brands because these provide quality products at competitive prices. We saw this first in the Smartphone market for Xiaomi and Lenovo (Motorola), and now we see the growth of Hisense and TCL in the TV market in different countries of Latin America.”Eunha ChoiStrategic Account Manager LATAM, GfK
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Opportunities for established players in LATAM
The immediate future for the region’s economy might look bleak, but there are signs that recovery could be around the corner. Salaries are still below pre-COVID levels, but unemployment has fallen from 8% in 2019 to 7.2% in 2022. Exchange rates are currently favorable for importers, whilst a growing middle class will ultimately provide good opportunities for growth in the longer-term.
And if, as predicted by the IMF, inflation continues to ease and GDP to rise as we move into 2024, consumer spending power could soon start to increase.
Here are three key action points for established T&D retailers and manufacturers looking to take maximum advantage of growth opportunities in LATAM in 2023 and beyond.
Invest in promoting the product renewal cycle
The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated consumer buying behaviors by five to 10 years. This includes the uptake of new technologies, with many LATAM households investing in devices such as laptops, tablets, smartphones and games consoles to keep in touch and keep themselves occupied. Others took the opportunity to buy new cooking appliances and kitchen gadgets, as eating out was prohibited during lockdown.
Three years later, many consumers are getting ready to upgrade or replace these devices. However, consumers are constrained by their own financial circumstances and wider micro-economic conditions, which is lengthening the ‘traditional’ three-year renewal cycle and disrupting typical sales patterns. This has led to the ‘pent-up’ demand referenced earlier.
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In 2023, we see the start of a renewals cycle for the products purchased in the last 3 years. We can expect approximately 50% of sales to be renewals, and another 30% to be a second product or an upgrade. By all accounts, this is the time for brands to influence consumption.
It may feel counterintuitive in the downturn, but it’s critical for brands and retailers to invest in promoting their products. While 2021 and 2022 were hard years, the industry tendency can be to wait and be cautious. But if brands don’t invest now, consumers looking for advice on changing products won’t have them top of mind when they’re ready to spend.”Felipe MendesManaging Director Latin America, GfK
Jump on market gaps as new technologies emerge
To successfully overcome historic category barriers such as lack of awareness, high costs and concerns about data privacy, T&D brands will need to employ the right tactics. Manufacturers should focus on smart pricing strategies (targeted by segment / income level) and promoting the security features of their products, whilst retailers should push sales on all relevant channels and offer a range of payment options to include finance.
Tap into growing awareness of ESG, whilst keeping cost in mind
Environmental and social governance (ESG) is becoming increasingly prominent in LATAM (although still less so than in other regions) as consumers become more aware of the social and economic effects of climate change. A company’s environmental impact is now of much greater interest to the consumer than in the past and has a growing influence on purchasing behavior.
However, whilst many consumers would like to take positive action such as buying recycled products, or recycling more themselves, they often cannot afford to do so. As a result, it is circularity – the minimization of waste and maximization of reuse – that is the main ESG driver for LATAM consumers right now.
This is a great opportunity for T&D companies and one that could work especially well for new brands eager to promote their commitment to ESG. The key is to create services and marketing messages that aim to save the consumer money, time or effort as well as benefiting the planet. In its simplest form, this could be a smartphone brand offering trade-ins for old models when the customer buys a new one. The customer gets a small payment for their old handset, which is then reused or recycled instead of going to landfill.
However, there is a great deal of mileage – both in terms of increasing market share and growing trust – in going further to help the consumer whilst benefiting the environment.
3 keys for new players in the market
LATAM consumers love their brands and tend to remain loyal, so new entrants may find it hard to take on the incumbents. Here are three ‘must do’ actions for emerging T&D manufacturers to maximize their chances of success.
Don’t ‘copy and paste’ product portfolios
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Local T&D brands, especially in the SDA and MDA categories, always modify their products for individual markets within LATAM. Sometimes the changes are small; in other cases, the whole look and feel, design and usability needs to be altered. Manufacturers need to understand which products will translate well and which will not. This is where the localized data and consumer / market insights provided by GfK can prove invaluable.”Henrique MascarenhasCommercial Director Brazil, GfK
Promote ethics and equality – but with care
However, feelings around such areas can be very different to those in other regions of the world, with consumers often taking a ‘black or white’ approach to topics like gender identity. T&D brands looking to grow trust by aligning themselves with such issues are therefore advised to tread carefully. In other words: choose your battles wisely!
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“Inequality is the critical point in LATAM, so the best reactions tend to be towards brands which take a clear position on social and ethical issues. This is mainly the case for FMCG and T&D brands targeting younger age groups such as Gen Z, who tend to feel the strongest connections with topical positioning.
It is crucial for companies that adopt these tactics to sustain their values and positions consistently, whilst showing their commitment to reducing equality within their chosen topic. If a new company takes a certain political or social stance, consumers will expect to see them proactively working with affinity groups, for example, by leading the process of educating people about issues affecting the groups and developing actions to address them."Fernando BaialunaHead of gfkconsult Latin America, GfK -
So, for T&D brands, especially start-ups, there is a chance to gain traction and create trust by focusing on marketing activities that promote social equality. However, this must be approached with care; brand trust is a fragile thing, especially amongst Gen Z and Millennial consumers, and a single wrong move or hint of scandal can wipe out years of hard work in an instant.”Fernando BaialunaHead of gfkconsult Latin America, GfK
Explore strategic national and regional partnerships
As we have seen, building trust is a challenge for new T&D manufacturers entering the LATAM region. One way to get around this is to forge strategic partnerships with national and regional retailers that are already well-known and trusted. For example, introducing product ranges as concessions (‘store-in-store’), both online and in physical stores.
Expert insights and strategic direction to master LATAM T&D market
This year 50% of sales in the Tech & Durables industry are renewals, while 30% are either a second product or an upgrade. So, it is important for T&D brands to invest in their brand promotion to persuade new customers to switch, as well as retain existing clients.
To gain growth with traditional consumers a precise pricing strategy is key - as they are ready to wait for promotional seasons when purchasing T&D products. On the other hand, Latin American consumers are young, practical, and open to adopting new brands, so the time to invest in brands is now.
Latin American consumers are insecure about their financial future - still T&D producers and retailers have plenty of opportunities to achieve sustainable growth. The key ingredient is market and consumer knowledge, as adapting messaging for different segments of your target group will allow consumers to identify with your brand and its value for them.
Facing high inflation rates, people would rather spend than save. This creates an opportunity for T&D companies to position their products and grow business. Understanding consumer behavior and needs is critical to be able to make the right decisions on how to target the right consumers with the right messaging.
Coming out of multiple crises, Chileans are challenging brands for more transparency and personal relevance, making the consumer’s voice in T&D brands more important than ever.
There are ways LATAM manufacturers and retailers can increase the demand and consumption of T&D products: reinforce the power of the brand, go through a phygital journey and communicate to the right target audience.
Top 3 must-knows for 2023
A summary of what T&D manufacturers and retailers need to do to stay ahead of the curve in the LATAM region to engage with target consumer groups and grow market share.
Think globally, act locally
Faced with these never-ending variations, a ‘Think globally, act locally’ ethos is more important for new and established T&D brands in LATAM than anywhere else on earth. Pricing, product assortment, design and promotional activities must all be adjusted to meet national and regional needs, budgets and tastes, not to mention the ever-evolving customer journey. Effective market segmentation strategy and 360o decision-making, supported by granular data and local market and consumer insights, is indispensable.
Play smart with consumer and market segments
Once again, understanding differences whilst applying integrated thinking is critical. Segments such as affordable premium, or sales channels like social media, cannot be treated as isolated silos. The right strategy and tactics will be different for every company, brand and LATAM country. But without understanding regional and national cultural, historic and social differences in the first instance, it will be hard for brands to grow.
Generate market traction by building trust
The importance of trust has already been stated multiple times, but perhaps cannot be overstated! Even established and much-loved brands cannot rest on their laurels in LATAM. Consumers need to see T&D manufacturers and retailers widely advertising and promoting their products if they are to keep them top of mind and buy, not save.
That means telling stories about brands that resonate with consumers’ wants, needs and values – just like in 2020 when everything went online. The difference now is that T&D brands live in an omnichannel world and must reach out to consumers in the right place, at the right time and in the right way to generate and maintain traction.
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