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03.07.2020

UK Consumer Confidence improves three points

GfK has released its 4th COVID-19 flash report using data gathered between 18th and 26th June. It shows the long-running Consumer Confidence Index has increased by three points over the past two weeks. Four measures increased and one measure decreased.    

Joe Staton, GfK‘s Client Strategy Director, says: “Despite the backdrop of dire warnings about the state of the economy, large-scale job losses, the end of furlough with the prospect of further unemployment, and a possible second-wave of COVID-19, consumers appear to be slightly more confident as lockdown loosens across parts of the UK.

"After the recent near-historic low of -36 for the Consumer Confidence Barometer last month, we‘re seeing some early signs of improvement across most measures for our fourth COVID-19 flash, even though all our core scores remain negative.

"The seven-point jump in the Major Purchase Index could bode well for ‘reopening day’ this Saturday as more shoppers hit the high streets after a trip to the pub and visit to the hairdresser. However, economic headwinds could easily blow any recovery off-course with confidence remaining fragile and volatile amid few signs of stability.”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – 4th COVID-19 flash

The Overall Index Score increased by three points over the past two weeks to -27. Four measures increased and one measure decreased.

About the survey

  • This COVID-19 flash report was conducted among a sample of 2,000 individuals aged 16+.
  • This is the 4th interim report to evaluate the impact of the UK’s COVID-19 lockdown on consumer confidence. It was produced to accompany the monthly UK Consumer Confidence Barometer which is conducted by GfK on behalf of the EU.
  • Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
  • Interviewing was carried out between 18th and 26th June 2020.
  • The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
  • The Overall Index Score is calculated using underlying data that runs to two decimal points.
  • This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 2006.
  • The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:

Personal Financial Situation

(Q1/Q2)

This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’

‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse)

General Economic Situation

(Q3/Q4)

This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’

‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’

(a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse - a lot worse)

Major Purchase Index

(Q8)

This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’

(right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time)

Savings

Index

(Q10)

 

This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save)

(Commented on but not included in the Index Score)


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