No festive cheer as index notches up 20 consecutive months in negative territory
GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index decreased by two points to -12 in November. All five measures used to calculate the score fell in November, with the biggest drop occurring in the Major Purchase Index (down 6 points).
Joe Staton, Head of Market Dynamics at GfK, says:
“Sadly, there’s no festive cheer in this month’s Consumer Confidence Index. This is the second time this year that consumer confidence has matched the worrying -12 score seen in July 2016 after the Brexit vote. This is also the 20th consecutive month where the Overall Index score has come in at a negative value – that’s not good festive news.
Household jitters following the recent interest rate hike, squeezed incomes, higher inflation, and economic uncertainty have dampened the consumer mood across the UK. Perhaps of most concern during this key Christmas trading period is the plunge in the Major Purchase Index (a sharp 6-point drop). Many retailers have been hit by the slowdown in consumer spending as households begin to feel the pinch and cut-back on their budgets. The confidence trajectory is unquestionably negative and sadly no amount of tinsel or baubles will change it. We need some big, positive economic good tidings to reverse this downwards trend – some snap we can put into our Christmas crackers. But where will the Index be next month?”
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – November 2017
The Overall Index Score in November is -12. All five measures used to calculate the score fell in November, with the biggest drop occurring in the Major Purchase Index (down six points).
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last 12 months has decreased one point this month to -1; this is two points lower than this time last year. The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months has decreased to +2 this month; this is at the same level as November 2016.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the General Economic Situation of the country during the last 12 months has decreased three points to -32; this is seven points lower than November 2016. Expectations for the General Economic Situation over the next 12 months have decreased two points this month to -28; this is six points lower than this time last year.
Major Purchase Index
The Major Purchase Index has decreased six points this month to -3; this is eight points lower than November 2016.
The Savings Index has increased to +8 in November; this is 19 points higher than November 2016.
Confidence in personal finances in the coming year remains strong at +10 and there is a 3rd consecutive improvement in our view of the general economic situation for the next 12 months.Read more
AI-enabled features give better predictions at speed in highly unpredictable landscapesRead more
Brits more upbeat about personal finances for year ahead as Index Score jumps seven points to -16 in March. All five measures were up against the February 19th announcement.Read more
GfK Brand Architect measures brand strength by replicating how consumers choose brands in real life. This new framework bridges the gap between consumer attitudes and actual buying behaviour.Read more