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Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director at GfK, says:
“Pre-Brexit consumers are marginally more bullish this month with improvements in levels of confidence across most measures.
"Although it’s too soon to judge any impact of a post-Boris bounce, we can report a boost in attitudes to our personal financial situation in the face of low interest rates and day-to-day inflation, a buoyant labour market and growth in real wages. This confidence is further reflected in a six-point jump in the Major Purchase Index (“do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases”).
"This mirrors the ongoing resilience in consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth and stable retail sales figures. Consumers have generally been less affected by Brexit uncertainties than business since the Referendum.
"However, the coming months to the October 31st departure date will test the strength of this confidence. Will consumers greet the Halloween Brexit deadline with hurrahs or howls?”
The Overall Index Score in July 2019 is -11. Four measures increased in July and one is unchanged.
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last 12 months has increased by two points this month to +1; this is the same as in July 2018.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months increased by five points to +7 this month; this is also the same as in July 2018.
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months has remained unchanged this month at -32; this is four points lower than in July 2018.
Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have increased one point to -32; this is six points lower than July 2018.
The major purchase index increased six points in July 2019 to +4; this is six points higher than in July 2018.
The savings index has increased six points in June to +25; this is 16 points higher than at this time last year.
Download the data charts for UK Consumer Confidence July 2019
Personal Financial Situation
This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’
‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse)
General Economic Situation
This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’
‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’
(a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse - a lot worse)
Major Purchase Index
This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’
(right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time)
This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save)
(Commented on but not included in the Index Score)
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