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London, 31.07.2019

UK Consumer Confidence improves two points to -11 for July 2019

UK Consumer Confidence - July 2019

Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director at GfK, says:

“Pre-Brexit consumers are marginally more bullish this month with improvements in levels of confidence across most measures. 

"Although it’s too soon to judge any impact of a post-Boris bounce, we can report a boost in attitudes to our personal financial situation in the face of low interest rates and day-to-day inflation, a buoyant labour market and growth in real wages. This confidence is further reflected in a six-point jump in the Major Purchase Index (“do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases”).

"This mirrors the ongoing resilience in consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth and stable retail sales figures. Consumers have generally been less affected by Brexit uncertainties than business since the Referendum.

"However, the coming months to the October 31st departure date will test the strength of this confidence. Will consumers greet the Halloween Brexit deadline with hurrahs or howls?”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – July 2019

The Overall Index Score in July 2019 is -11. Four measures increased in July and one is unchanged.

Personal Financial Situation 

The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last 12 months has increased by two points this month to +1; this is the same as in July 2018.  

The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months increased by five points to +7 this month; this is also the same as in July 2018. 

General Economic Situation 

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months has remained unchanged this month at -32; this is four points lower than in July 2018.  

Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have increased one point to -32; this is six points lower than July 2018.

Major Purchase Index 

The major purchase index increased six points in July 2019 to +4; this is six points higher than in July 2018.

Savings Index 

The savings index has increased six points in June to +25; this is 16 points higher than at this time last year.

Download the data charts for UK Consumer Confidence July 2019

GfK Consumer Confidence Index UK - July 2019

GfK Consumer Confidence Index UK - trend line to July 2019

About GfK's Consumer Confidence UK survey

  • The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK on behalf of the EU, with similar surveys being conducted in each European country. In producing its own reports on the whole of Europe, the EU applies a seasonal adjustment to the data, to smooth out any changes that are functions, at least in part, of the time of year.
  • Historically, the UK data have not been seasonally adjusted in this way, and to maintain comparability, GfK continues not to apply this adjustment. This can lead to situations where the EU figures show different movements in a particular month from those produced by GfK. Individual months may be affected, but the long-term trend is not.
  • The UK Consumer Confidence Survey from GfK was conducted among a sample of 2,002 individuals aged 16+ on behalf of the European Commission.
  • Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population. 
  • Interviewing was carried out during 1st – 14th July 2019.
  • The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
  • Results for the Consumer Confidence Barometer are normally available on the last working day of each month at 00.01am (unless the final working day of a month is a Monday, in which case the results are published on the Friday preceding the final working day). The release date for August is Friday 30th August 2019.
  • Any published material requires a reference to both GfK and the European Commission e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK on behalf of the European Commission’.
  • This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 1996.  
  • The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:  

Personal Financial Situation

(Q1/Q2)

This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’

‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse)

General Economic Situation

(Q3/Q4)

This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’

‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’

(a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse - a lot worse)

Major Purchase Index

(Q8)

This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’

(right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time)

Savings

Index

(Q10)

This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save)

(Commented on but not included in the Index Score)


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