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London, 21.07.2023

UK Consumer confidence drops six points in July to -30 as reality bites resilient consumers

Concerns for personal finances and wider economy over next 12-months  

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index decreased six points to -30 in July. All five measures were down in comparison to last month’s announcement.


 
Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director, GfK, says: “For the first six months of 2023, UK consumer confidence improved despite the headwinds of the cost-of-living crisis, with double-digit inflation outpacing income growth and rising interest rates impacting both home-owners and renters alike. Suddenly, this resilience has collapsed, resulting in a six-point fall this month in the headline score. There are clear concerns for the coming year for our personal finances and for the wider UK economy, with these measures down six and eight points, respectively. The recent fall in headline inflation will do little to improve the financial mood; consumers need to see falling prices and interest rates before that happens. Reality has started to bite and, as people continue to struggle to make ends meet, consumers will pull back from spending, as is clear from the seven-point drop in this month’s measure of major purchase intentions. All in all it’s bad news. People are feeling economic pain and this confidence deficit needs to be reversed before the gains this year are lost.”
 

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – July 2023

The Overall Index Score decreased six points to -30 in July. All five measures were down in comparison to last month’s announcement. 

Personal Financial Situation 

The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is down five points at -20; this is three points better than July 2022. 

The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months decreased six points to -7, which is 19 points higher than this time last year. 

General Economic Situation 

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is down four points at -58; this is eight points higher than in July 2022.  

Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have decreased by eight points to -33; this is 24 points better than July 2022. 

Major Purchase Index 

The Major Purchase Index is down seven points to -32; this is two points higher than this month last year.

Savings Index

The Savings Index is up one point to +26; this is 13 points higher than this time last year.
 
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Notes to editor

Please source all information to GfK.

Press contact: for further details or to arrange an interview, please contact Greenfields Communications: 

Stuart Ridsdale E: stuart@greenfieldscommunications.com T +44 (0) 7790 951229  

Lucy Green E: lucy@greenfieldscommunications.com T +44 (0) 7817 698366

 
About the survey 
  • The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK.
  • This month’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2,001 individuals aged 16+.
  • Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
  • Interviewing was conducted between July 3rd and July 13th 2023.
  • The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
  • The Overall Index Score is calculated using underlying data that runs to two decimal points.
  • Press release dates for the remainder of 2023 are: Aug 25th; Sept 22nd; October 20th; November 24th; December 15th.
  • Any published material requires a reference to GfK e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK’.
  • This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 2006.
  • The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures: 

 


Personal Financial Situation

(Q1/Q2)

This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’

‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse)

General Economic Situation

(Q3/Q4)

This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’

‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’

(a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse - a lot worse)

Major Purchase Index

(Q8)

This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’

(right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time)

Savings

Index

(Q10)

 

This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save)

(Commented on but not included in the Index Score)

 
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