GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index decreased six points to -31 for October. All measures decreased in comparison to the September 25th announcement.
Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK, says:
“There’s a worrying threat of a double-dip in consumer confidence as concerns for our personal financial situation and even deeper fears over the state of the UK economy drag the Index down six points this month. Despite low inflation and rock-bottom interest rates, a buoyant housing market and a raft of Government financial stimulus measures, the prospect of rising unemployment is severely depressing our outlook. Worryingly, this data was collected before the new round of COVID-19 restrictions came into force and the end of the furlough scheme, so this will negatively impact the Index in the run-up to Christmas and the months beyond. Expect the autumn chill to give way to much stormier conditions.”
The Overall Index Score decreased six points to -31 for October. All measures decreased in comparison to the September 25th announcement.
The index measuring changes in personal finances over the last 12 months is down two points to -9; this is ten points lower than October 2019.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is down one point this month at 0; this is also one point lower than October 2019.
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months has decreased by six points to -67; this is 34 points lower than in October 2019.
Expectations for the general economic situation over the coming 12 months are down 12 points at -50; this is 13 points lower than October 2019.
The Major Purchase Index has decreased by six points to -27 in October; this is 28 points lower than it was in October 2019.
The Savings Index has dropped six points to +14 in October; this is seven points lower than this time last year.
Personal Financial Situation
This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’
‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse)
General Economic Situation
This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’
‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’
(a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse - a lot worse)
Major Purchase Index
This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’
(right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time)
This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save)
(Commented on but not included in the Index Score)
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