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GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index increased seven points in February to -38. All five measures were up in comparison to the January 20th announcement.
Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director, GfK says:
“Despite widely reported headwinds of inflation continuing to outstrip wage rises, and the ongoing household challenge from the cost-of-living crisis, consumers have suddenly shown more optimism about the state of their personal finances and the general economic situation, especially for the coming year. While it's too early to talk about ‘green shoots of recovery’, the uptick across all measures should be welcomed. But what’s happening? Are people simply fed up with hearing bad news? Do they see a milder recession than the pundits predicted? Do they sense the most worrying phase of the energy crisis is over? The headline consumer confidence score is still severely depressed and the mood as well as the economy remain a long way off pre-lockdown levels, but a little consumer resilience might be what we need to soften any downturn in 2023. However, many challenges remain and this may be nothing more than a bubble of hope – and bubbles always burst”
The Overall Index Score increased seven points in February to -38. All five measures were up in comparison to the January 20th announcement.
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last 12 months increased five points to -26; this is 15 points worse than February 2022.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months increased nine points to -18, which is four points lower than this time last year.
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is up six points at -65; this is 15 points lower than in February 2022.
Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months are up by 11 points to -43; this is the same score as February 2022.
The Major Purchase Index is up three points to -37; this is 22 points lower than this month last year.
The Savings Index is up five points this month at +19; this is five points higher than this time last year.
Download the data charts:
About the survey
Personal Financial Situation
This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’
‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse)
General Economic Situation
This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’
‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’
(a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse - a lot worse)
Major Purchase Index
This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’
(right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time)
This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save)
(Commented on but not included in the Index Score)
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