London, 24.02.2023

UK Consumer confidence in surprise rebound from historic lows

Headline score up seven points in February
 

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index increased seven points in February to -38. All five measures were up in comparison to the January 20^th announcement.

Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director, GfK says:

“Despite widely reported headwinds of inflation continuing to outstrip wage rises, and the ongoing household challenge from the cost-of-living crisis, consumers have suddenly shown more optimism about the state of their personal finances and the general economic situation, especially for the coming year. While it's too early to talk about ‘green shoots of recovery’, the uptick across all measures should be welcomed. But what’s happening? Are people simply fed up with hearing bad news? Do they see a milder recession than the pundits predicted? Do they sense the most worrying phase of the energy crisis is over? The headline consumer confidence score is still severely depressed and the mood as well as the economy remain a long way off pre-lockdown levels, but a little consumer resilience might be what we need to soften any downturn in 2023. However, many challenges remain and this may be nothing more than a bubble of hope – and bubbles always burst”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – February 2023

The Overall Index Score increased seven points in February to -38. All five measures were up in comparison to the January 20^th announcement.

Personal Financial Situation

The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last 12 months increased five points to -26; this is 15 points worse than February 2022. 

The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months increased nine points to -18, which is four points lower than this time last year.

General Economic Situation

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is up six points at -65; this is 15 points lower than in February 2022.  

Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months are up by 11 points to -43; this is the same score as February 2022.

Major Purchase Index

The Major Purchase Index is up three points to -37; this is 22 points lower than this month last year.

Savings Index

The Savings Index is up five points this month at +19; this is five points higher than this time last year.

 

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About the survey

• The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK.
• This month’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2,000 individuals aged 16+.
• Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
• Interviewing was conducted between February 1st and February 13th 2023.
• The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
• The Overall Index Score is calculated using underlying data that runs to two decimal points.
• Press release dates for the remainder of 2023 are: March 24^th; April 21^st; May 19^th; June 23^rd; July 21^st; Aug 25^th; Sept 22^nd; October 20^th; November 24^th; December 15^th
• Any published material requires a reference to GfK e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK’.
• This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 2006.
• The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:

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