GfK’s long-running UK Consumer Confidence Index remained the same in June at -1. Two of the measures used to calculate the Index saw increases this month, with one measure showing a decrease and the remaining two measures staying the same. Joe Staton, Head of Market Dynamics at GfK, says:
“This month’s GfK Consumer Confidence Index is based on interviewing carried out in the first two weeks of the month, as is the case every month. So our current data – using interviews from between June 1st and June 15th – clearly does not yet provide insights into how the major impact of the EU Referendum result has changed consumer sentiment.
“Nevertheless, one trend that continued in the run up to the referendum is a deepening pessimism over the general economic situation. As we approached voting day, this was already 18 points lower than in June 2015 and it’s almost certain we’ll see this worsening when next month’s results are in. Before the referendum there was an uptick in confidence about personal finances, and as of mid-June this measure was more positive than 12 months ago. But once again it is difficult to see this holding up.
“In these extraordinary consumer circumstances, all bets are off until we all know more. We can expect plenty of volatility in consumer confidence at least until Brexit negotiations are underway. The longer term mood will then depend on how smoothly those negotiations go.”
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – June 2016
The Overall Index Score has stayed the same this month at -1.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last 12 months has increased by two points this month to +6; this is also two points higher than June 2015.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months has increased by one point this month to +8; this is three points higher than this time last year.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the General Economic Situation of the country during the last 12 months has stayed the same this month at -13; this is 17 points lower than June 2015.
Expectations for the General Economic Situation over the next 12 months have decreased by one point to -14 in June; this is 18 points lower than June 2015.
Major Purchase Index
The Major Purchase Index has stayed the same this month at +9; this is seven points lower than this time last year.