Bruchsal 20.02.2019
Germany’s brick-and-mortar retail turnover to grow by €3.4 bil. in 2019
GfK’s regional retail turnover prognosis
GfK forecasts a slight nominal growth of 0.8 percent for Germany's brick-and-mortar retail turn-over in 2019. In addition to Germany’s largest cities, several mid-sized cities offer favorable retail conditions with high turnover potential.
GfK’s study “GfK Retail Turnover 2019” forecasts a turnover volume of €423.1 bil. for Germany’s brick-and-mortar retail in 2019. Compared to the previous year, GfK anticipates a rise in retail turnover of €3.4 bil., which corresponds to a slight nominal increase of 0.8 percent.
Germany’s regional distribution of turnover
Brick-and-mortar retail turnover is most concentrated in Germany’s districts with the largest populations. The top spots go to the metropolises of Berlin, Hamburg and Munich: Germany’s capital is the undisputed frontrunner with a retail turnover of more than €18.9 bil., which equates to 4.48 percent of the country’s total retail turnover. Hamburg places second with a retail turnover of €11.5 bil. (2.71 percent), followed by Munich with €11.1 bil. (2.62 percent). Fourth and fifth places go to the urban district of Cologne (1.70 percent) and the Hannover region (1.59 percent), while the urban districts of Frankfurt, Stuttgart and Düsseldorf each have approximately one percent of Germany’s total retail turnover.
Top 20 districts for total retail turnover
| turnover ranking | urban district (UD) / rural district (RD) | inhabitants | retail turnover in mil. € | share of total brick-and-mortar retail turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berlin UD | 3,613,495 | 18,938.9 | 4.48% |
| 2 | Hamburg UD | 1,830,584 | 11,470.5 | 2.71% |
| 3 | Munich UD | 1,456,039 | 11,106.1 | 2.62% |
| 4 | Cologne UD | 1,080,394 | 7,202.3 | 1.70% |
| 5 | Hannover region | 1,152,675 | 6,709.6 | 1.59% |
| 6 | Frankfurt am Main UD | 746,878 | 4,461.2 | 1.05% |
| 7 | Stuttgart UD | 632,743 | 4,232.8 | 1.00% |
| 8 | Düsseldorf UD | 617,280 | 4,216.0 | 1.00% |
| 9 | Nuremberg UD | 515,201 | 3,564.2 | 0.84% |
| 10 | Dortmund UD | 586,600 | 3,442.0 | 0.81% |
| 11 | Essen UD | 583,393 | 3,383.1 | 0.80% |
| 12 | Bremen UD | 568,006 | 3,204.7 | 0.76% |
| 13 | Recklinghausen RD | 616,824 | 3,152.7 | 0.75% |
| 14 | Aachen City region | 554,068 | 3,090.5 | 0.73% |
| 15 | Dresden UD | 551,072 | 3,043.8 | 0.72% |
| 16 | Rhine-Sieg-Kreis RD | 599,056 | 2,846.4 | 0.67% |
| 17 | Leipzig UD | 581,980 | 2,776.6 | 0.66% |
| 18 | Mettmann RD | 485,409 | 2,621.2 | 0.62% |
| 19 | Rhine-Neckar-Kreis RD | 546,745 | 2,571.9 | 0.61% |
| 20 | Ludwigsburg RD | 542,630 | 2,555.9 | 0.60% |
source: GfK Retail Turnover Germany 2019; UD = urban district; RD = rural district
Germany's top 20 districts comprise one-fourth of the nation's total brick-and-mortar retail turnover, while the top 10 districts alone make up almost 18 percent. The stronger a retail location, the greater its ability to draw consumers. When choosing where to shop, consumers seek a large selection, opportunities to find good deals and an appealing urban retail experience. But such retail hotspots frequently have fierce competition, leading to a surplus offering for certain segments and target groups. Rent levels are also often very high, assuming suitable spaces can be found at all.
Given these factors, smaller cities are of ever greater importance to expansion-oriented retailers. Mid-sized cities with a wide range of services and administrative functions for the surrounding area can command per capita retail turnover volumes twice that of the national average (€5,110). Such is the case for the urban districts of Würzburg, Passau and Straubing, which lead the district rankings for per capita turnover potential in 2019. With a per capita retail turnover 1.5 times the national average, the urban district of Mannheim – a large city with more than 300,000 inhabitants – also places among the top 20 districts.
Top 20 districts for per capita retail turnover
| index ranking | urban district (UD) / rural district (RD) | inhabitants | retail turnover in mil. € | retail turnover index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Würzburg UD | 126,635 | 1,303.3 | 201.4 |
| 2 | Passau UD | 51,781 | 518.8 | 196.1 |
| 3 | Straubing UD | 47,586 | 473.3 | 194.6 |
| 4 | Weiden i.d.OPf. UD | 42,543 | 404.6 | 186.1 |
| 5 | Trier UD | 110,013 | 1,043.1 | 185.5 |
| 6 | Schweinfurt UD | 53,437 | 501.3 | 183.6 |
| 7 | Rosenheim UD | 63,080 | 576.6 | 178.9 |
| 8 | Ingolstadt UD | 135,244 | 1,205.6 | 174.4 |
| 9 | Kempten (Allgäu) UD | 68,330 | 597.9 | 171.2 |
| 10 | Zweibrücken UD | 34,270 | 299.8 | 171.2 |
| 11 | Koblenz UD | 113,844 | 989.7 | 170.1 |
| 12 | Landshut UD | 71,193 | 614.4 | 168.9 |
| 13 | Regensburg UD | 150,894 | 1,284.8 | 166.6 |
| 14 | Heilbronn UD | 86,556 | 717.2 | 162.6 |
| 15 | Flensburg UD | 88,519 | 722.2 | 159.6 |
| 16 | Memmingen UD | 43,470 | 349.7 | 157.4 |
| 17 | Aschaffenburg UD | 69,928 | 558.2 | 156.2 |
| 18 | Hof UD | 45,950 | 363.0 | 154.6 |
| 19 | Kaiserslautern UD | 99,684 | 785.2 | 154.1 |
| 20 | Mannheim UD | 307,997 | 2,375.9 | 151.0 |
source: GfK Retail Turnover Germany 2019; UD = urban district; RD = rural district; 100 = national average
Note: The per capita values represent a purely mathematical benchmark, because retail at the respective locations is by no means driven solely by the local inhabitants. Insight into the retail drawing power of the regions in question can nonetheless be gained by correlating retail turnover with population size.
About the study
GfK Retail Turnover reveals the regional distribution of brick-and-mortar retail turnover. In contrast to GfK Purchasing Power, which is calculated at consumers’ places of residence, GfK Retail Turn-over is calculated at the points of sale. The retail turnover values exclude automobile and fuel sales as well as online and mail-order trade.
GfK annually calculates GfK Retail Turnover for every regional level as a total value and per capita value in euros and as an index (German average = 100). These calculations are carried out for all of Germany's urban and rural districts, postcodes and municipalities with more than 10,000 inhabitants.
The study "GfK Retail Turnover" is also available for many other European countries.
Additional information on GfK’s regional market data can be accessed here.
Print-quality illustrations can be found here.
About GfK
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