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Tendencias y pronósticos

La velocidad actual de lanzamiento de nuevas ofertas, junto a la disminución de los ciclos de vida de los productos, se traducen en una presión incomparable para que las empresas se mantengan a la vanguardia.  El comportamiento de compra de los consumidores está cambiando más rápido que nunca. 

Para tener éxito, las empresas necesitan contar con pronósticos de ventas precisos (basados en análisis sólidos) y tendencias actualizadas de compra y mercado.

Entregamos pronósticos detallados de las demandas de los consumidores con la adquisición dispositivos tecnológicos, al igual que tendencias del mercado tecnológico a nivel mundial.

Nuestros pronósticos se construyen en base a la muestra más importante del mundo de información de punto de ventas, combinando nuestra experiencia global y el conocimiento local. Esta combinación les permite a nuestros clientes acceder a pronósticos granulados y oportunos de la demanda futura; es decir, qué productos comprarán los consumidores, qué cantidad, a qué precio y dónde. 

Pronósticos para inversores y mercados de capital

Los inversores institucionales están presionados para actuar. Para tener éxito, las empresas necesitan visibilidad de las tendencias significativas en las primeras etapas. Las empresas deben adquirir información confiable y adaptada sobre dónde invertir.

Proporcionamos a los inversores previsiones sólidas, utilizando la muestra más importante del punto de venta. Predecimos y documentamos los puntos de inflexión en la demanda de los consumidores. Ofrecemos análisis regulares y detallados de empresas de hardware, semiconductores y bienes de consumo duraderos.

Nuestros pronósticos les permiten a los inversores realizar recomendaciones exitosas, con el respaldo de fuentes fiables y compatibles.

Últimas noticias

Aquí puede encontrar las últimas tendencias acerca de estrategias sobre el tendencias y previsiones. Siga leyendo

    • 04/20/16
    • Press
    • Trends and Forecasting
    • Global Study
    • Regional Market Data
    • Mexico
    • Spanish (Latin America)

    European consumers fear economic slowdown

    Findings of the GfK Consumer Climate Europe study for the first quarter of 2016
    • 01/31/16
    • Trends and Forecasting
    • Mexico
    • Spanish (Latin America)

    Explore the Connected Consumer

    Es momento de pensar diferente. Los consumidores actuales utilizan la tecnología para reinventarse a si mismos, sus vidas y sus comunidades. Están cambiando el sistema de valores actual. Los "consumidores conectados" adoptan la libertad, aceleración e intimidad. (Inglés)
    • 02/24/20
    • Retail
    • Technology
    • Point of Sales Tracking
    • Trends and Forecasting
    • TEMAX
    • Global
    • English

    Coronavirus impact on the tech market

    The epidemic of SARS-CoV-2, otherwise known as coronavirus (COVID-19), is already affecting retail and technology markets. The coronavirus impact on the tech market has already begun with major brands such as Apple and Nissan reporting knock-on effects due to their supply chain and production dependency on China. How fast and how great of an extent can we expect to see similar impacts expand across industries? The timing of when the outbreak can be brought under control will heavily determine the severity of market disruptions.

    Coronavirus (COVID-19) impact on the tech market is a global issue

    Most major manufacturers rely on parts or production capacities from China, but China’s workforce and manufacturing capability have been hit hard. China has more than 75,000 people infected with COVID-19 as of Feb 20th, majority of the workforce is staying home. Blue-collar workers are just now cautiously returning to their manufacturing sites after being away for some weeks while office employees are preferring to compensate by working from home. The coronavirus impact on the tech market is putting a huge pressure not only on the global supply chain but also on the retail and service industries. While some manufacturers and retailers are able to live off their stocks for a certain time, the scarcity of available products will become an issue very soon. This is especially so for the tech industries even with manufacturing capacities in China starting to produce again. The question is whether consumers will be willing to postpone purchases of out-of-stock items or whether they will consider an alternative product that is available right away. Although some companies are already making plans to diversify their sourcing, the supply impact will be unavoidable in the short term. Countries neighboring China might benefit economically from these supply chain and production moves, especially those with strong manufacturing and tech footprint.

    Consumer attitudes towards price and immediacy

    Naturally, price becomes a greater factor at times of short supply and is something consumers are very sensitive to. Globally, 44% of shoppers say they have increased how often they compare prices across different stores compared to a year ago, with older age groups being extra prone to this. At the same time, 61% of the consumers point to the price as the most important driver when choosing the final product. The effects of elevated pricing due to reduced supply and product availability can range from consumers delaying a purchase to choosing an alternative product on stock, or even not purchasing a product at all. If it’s a case of postponed demand, this can be satisfied in the following quarters, if there is enough capacity on the manufacturer side. The more negative scenario might be that these postponed purchases will not materialize at all, which will lead to a significant market decline and lost sales opportunities. The consumer expectation for immediacy is core to these developments especially when it comes to certain consumer segments who highly value immediacy in their purchases – some even at the expense of quality. Globally, 31% specifically say they are “willing to settle for an inferior product or service if it’s available when I need it”. Added to this, 22% in Western Europe say they really need the shops and services they use to be available at all times. All of this can negatively impact retailers’ and manufacturers’ turnover.

    What are the signs that manufacturers and retailers should watch for?

    Risk mitigation and management during disruption like this coronavirus impact on the tech market depends on being able to spot the early changes in buying behavior. The following considerations are important signs to watch for when it comes to navigating through these turbulent times:
      1. Are consumers postponing big-ticket purchases such as TVs or fridges?
      2. Are there significant changes in the competitors’ performance?
      3. Which sectors and product groups are hit first (or the hardest) by the drying supply chain?
      4. What are the changes to online vs offline share of the market as consumers choose to stay at home and avoid contact with crowds (e.g. in China and rest of Asia)?
      5. What effects will postponing launches have on key markets?
    The lack of responsiveness to such disruptive challenges usually comes at a high price. Quick availability of granular data can provide businesses with timely insights to stay on top of these questions and react fast with informed decisions. Data in this blog is from the following reports: GfK Consumer Life 2019, GfK Consumer Insights Engine 2019 and GfK Future Buy 2019.

    Want to spot early changes in buying behavior?

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    • 02/06/20
    • Retail
    • Technology
    • Consumer Goods
    • Point of Sales Tracking
    • Trends and Forecasting
    • TEMAX
    • Global
    • English

    Peak season sales 2019: Retail lessons learned

    It’s not a surprise – for many retailers, their Christmas season performance is the decisive factor for the entire year’s financial success. This is particularly true for those selling tech and durable goods. While peak season sales embrace Black Friday, Cyber week, Christmas week and post-Christmas promotions, it’s increasingly difficult for retailers to set the right priorities for each of these events. To do so, they need the best intelligence on what is selling and when.

    Each peak season is different

    When it comes to Black Friday, Cyber week, Christmas week and post-Christmas sales, retailers need to know that each peak season is different. They must react to different consumer expectations and demands to succeed in the peak season sales. First, the size of the business opportunity must be considered. The fact that Black Friday week and the following week after it are responsible for more than double the revenue of an average week indicates where to focus most energy. Combined with a 16% growth compared to 2018, this sub-season is most crucial for securing revenues and margins. The Christmas weeks (week 50 and 51) may have fallen behind Black Friday/Cyber week, but they still generate 45% more revenue than a usual week. However, relevance appears to be declining over time, for instance, in 2019 turnover was slightly below that posted in 2018. The post-Christmas season (weeks 52 to 02) is different again. Here we see a 12% uplift versus an average week, with growth in 2019 amounting to almost 10% compared to 2018. Vouchers and gift cards – as well as having the time to shop – are key drivers of consumer demand during this time of the year. The center of gravity keeps shifting to the Black Friday weeks, particularly for big-ticket item purchases. Every fifth Euro of the year is spent within these seven weeks of the peak trading season. Or put another way, the season’s performance is about 50% higher than that of an average retail week.

    When is the best time to promote a product?

    Consumer purchase behavior captured in GfK’s weekly Point of sales Tracking for tech and durables tells the story of what to promote and when it during the peak season sales weeks:
    •  Black Friday/Cyber Monday: Consumer Electronics (CE) are the star. Big-ticket items such as TVs soar in Brazil, Spain and Italy. Audio devices contribute strongly to the uplift in categories such as Small Domestic Appliances (SDA). Consumers are increasingly seeking out premium segment purchases, with a focus on entertainment categories including PTV and Audio. Overall, attractive discounts are the trigger to save the most Euros in absolute terms.

    •  Christmas: SDAs, Photo and IT product categories reveal the highest momentum. Printers, hairstyling tools and coffee machines are key movers in the final weeks of the year. The real gifting season peaks now. Smaller ticket items sell well, with a focus on traditional shops rather than online retail. Products to place as gifts under the tree are key.

       

    •  Post-Christmas: Here we see a shift back to CE, namely audio devices. Also, SDAs are more in demand this season. Price promotions pick up again and a more normal mix of assortment is in demand. E.g. Major Domestic Appliances see relative strong demand compared to the Christmas weeks. SDA and CE categories maintain their seasonal strength. 

    How do you protect sales margins?

    Looking at the level of discounts granted, the pressure on margins can be massive. But not playing along is not an option at all – consumer expectations for seasonal promotions become stronger every year and is a major trigger driving demand. The only option to secure peak season sales performance is to listen to consumer needs and behaviors to look out for opportunities. We break it down to three main takeaways: 1. Less complexity: This is the new consumer mantra. According to our latest FutureBuy study, 62% of global tech and durables shoppers complain about too much choice. This hampers decision-making. Instead, we recommend promoting fewer hero products that deliver performance and simplification.

    2. Clear communication: Alerted by media reports questioning the validity of seasonal promotion deals in previous years, consumers are increasingly skeptical about sales, discounts and promotions. It’s important that they are assured that price drops are genuine and that they see Black Friday and other seasonal price drops as offering a real benefit to them.

    3. Premiumization: Owning fewer but higher quality products is a clear and significant trend, especially during Black Friday week. Offering product segments one or two levels above the standard segments yields revenue potential, despite discounts to be granted. That’s why in 2019, average prices rose to a new peak compared to 2018 – at more than 40% above an average week. We saw this in the success of OLED and >50-inch TVs, and headphones/headsets, where prices rose by more than 50% on average Demand was strong for high-performance notebooks for gaming, and with ultra-thin designs, as well as true wireless in-ear Bluetooth headphones. Similar trading-up patterns were visible in the Telecom and Domestic Appliances markets. Ultimately, this ensures interest and traffic, and supports consumers’ aspirations.

    How will peak season sales look like in 2020?

    The year-end peak sales season has undergone a major shift over the past years with Black Friday dominating the promotional calendar as the game-changer. As this trend grows, markets have become more predictable as sales dynamics repeat themselves. Different sub-seasonal focus areas have established themselves in most European countries, as well as in markets such as Brazil. Knowing the details on a country and product level will support profitable decision making for the peak season sales in 2020.
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Arturo Valdez
Mexico 
+52 55 4160 3905
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