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London, 23.07.2021

UK Consumer Confidence up to -7 in July, ahead of pre-pandemic level

Headline score holds firm or improves for six months in a row

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index increased to -7 in July. Two measures were up in comparison to the June 25th announcement, two measures were down and one stayed the same.

Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK, says: “Consumer confidence edged ahead of its March 2020 pre-lockdown headline score by two points to -7 in July. This means it has now held firm or improved for six months in a row. Personal finance expectations for the next 12 months remain strong and there’s a dramatic jump this month in our major purchase sub-measure with shoppers agreeing that now is the ‘right time to buy’.

"The healthy seven-point rise in the major purchase measure aligns with strong retail growth figures that reflect the gradual unlocking of the UK high street and release of pent-up demand as Brits hit shops, restaurants and venues. However, threats from increasing consumer price inflation, rising COVID infection figures, and the looming end of furlough and the Job Retention Scheme could put the brakes on this rebound.

"Consumers are aware of these pressures, judging by the latest fall from -2 to -5 in their view of the general economy in the coming 12 months. What happens across the remaining summer months will frame consumer confidence for the rest of 2021 and beyond.”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – July 2021

The Overall Index Score increased to -7 in July. Two measures were up in comparison to the June 25th announcement, two measures were down and one stayed the same.

Personal Financial Situation

The index measuring changes in personal finances over the last 12 months is down one point at -1; this is three points better than July 2020. 

The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months has stayed the same at +11; this is 11 points higher than this time last year.

General Economic Situation

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is up four points at -43; this is 18 points higher than in July 2020.  

Expectations for the general economic situation over the coming 12 months have dropped by three points to -5; but this is still 36 points higher than July 2020.

Major Purchase Index

The Major Purchase Index has increased by seven points to +2 in July; this is 28 points higher than it was this month last year.

Savings Index

The Savings Index is down one point to +20 in July; this is one point lower than this time last year.

Download the charts for GfK's UK Consumer Confidence July 2021

About the survey

  • The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK.
  • This month’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2,000 individuals aged 16+.
  • Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
  • Interviewing was carried out between July 1st and July 14th 2021.
  • The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.
  • The Overall Index Score is calculated using underlying data that runs to two decimal points.
  • The confirmed date of the next press release is August 20th. The remaining dates for 2021 are:  September 24th, October 22nd, November 19th and December 23rd. 
  • Any published material requires a reference to GfK e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK’.
  • This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 2006.
  • The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:


Personal Financial Situation

(Q1/Q2)

This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’

‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse)

General Economic Situation

(Q3/Q4)

This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’

‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’

(a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse - a lot worse)

Major Purchase Index

(Q8)

This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’

(right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time)

Savings Index

(Q10)

This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save)

(Commented on but not included in the Index Score)

 



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