Growing fears about economy in coming 12 months
GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index has decreased by five points this month to -8. All five of the measures in the Index saw decreases in November.
Joe Staton, Head of Market Dynamics at GfK, says:
“The slump across the board this month points to continuing uncertainty about the state of the economy among consumers. Although scores for our personal financial situation just about remain positive, the big theme is the reduced confidence in the UK economy looking back and ahead. We are viewing our economy over the past 12 months with increasing despondency. The decreasing score on the economy for the next 12 months also shows we are resolutely gloomy about the outlook despite strong GDP numbers. The ‘next 12 months’ figure has been low since the June vote to leave the EU as ongoing economic turmoil, inflationary pressures and global anxiety impact our levels of confidence. And is this gloomy mood also affecting spending intentions? Despite recent strong retail sales, we are reporting a sharp -9 point drop in the Major Purchase Index this month and this will be an acute concern for retailers as they gear-up for the key Christmas selling period. Many are saying that fears about the British economy have been overstated, but time will tell if the pessimism shown in the Index is misplaced or not.”
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – November 2016
The Overall Index Score has decreased five points this month to -8. All five of the measures saw decreases in November.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last 12 months has decreased by two points this month to +1; this is the same level as last year.
The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months has decreased by four points this month to +2; this is also four points lower than November 2015.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the General Economic Situation of the country during the last 12 months has decreased six points this month to -25; this is 19 points lower than November 2015.
Expectations for the General Economic Situation over the next 12 months have decreased five points to -22 this month; this is 16 points lower than November 2015.
Major Purchase Index
The Major Purchase Index has decreased nine points this month to +5; this is four points lower than this time last year.
The Savings Index has decreased two points to -11; this is 12 points lower than November 2015.
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