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Press release
Retail|Consumer Insights|Consumer Insights Engine|United Kingdom|English

UK Consumer Confidence improves two points to -12 for September 2019

London, 27.09.2019

Consumers keeping their fingers crossed in run up to October 31st

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index increased two points to –12 in September. All five measures increased this month.

Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director at GfK, says: “More mixed signals this month as consumers continue to feel less than positive about the state of their personal finances and the general economy. While all sub measures are higher, they are anaemic in the case of our purchase intentions and how we view our wallets - and the results on the wider economy are still depressed.

"Since the Brexit referendum we have witnessed a long succession of negative Overall Index scores with the overall trend downwards. This month, British consumers appear to be treading water during this wait-and-see run-up to October 31st.

"Confidence is an important indicator which typically increases as the economy expands and decreases when the economy contracts and so far, consumer confidence is holding up. We certainly have a long way to go to match the record low Index score of -39 witnessed during the early days of the last recession. But will it stay that way? You can almost sense people are keeping their fingers crossed.”

UK Consumer Confidence Measures – September 2019

The Overall Index Score in September 2019 is -12. All five measures increased in September.

Personal Financial Situation 

The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last 12 months has increased by three points this month to +2; this is one point higher than September 2018.  

The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months increased by two points to +4 this month; this is one point lower than September 2018. 

General Economic Situation 

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months has increased two points this month to -32; this is four points lower than in September 2018.  

Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have increased three points to -35; this is eight points lower than September 2018.   

Major Purchase Index 

The major purchase index increased two points in September to +3; this is three points lower than in September 2018.

Savings Index 

The savings index has increased two points in September to +23; this is ten points higher than at this time last year.

Download the data charts for UK Consumer Confidence September 2019

Consumer Confidence Index UK - September 2019

Consumer Confidence UK - trend line Jan 2006 - Sep 2019

About the Consumer Confidence Index UK survey

The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK on behalf of the EU, with similar surveys being conducted in each European country. In producing its own reports on the whole of Europe, the EU applies a seasonal adjustment to the data, to smooth out any changes that are functions, at least in part, of the time of year.

Historically, the UK data have not been seasonally adjusted in this way, and to maintain comparability, GfK continues not to apply this adjustment. This can lead to situations where the EU figures show different movements in a particular month from those produced by GfK. Individual months may be affected, but the long-term trend is not.

The UK Consumer Confidence Survey from GfK was conducted among a sample of 2,000 individuals aged 16+ on behalf of the European Commission.

Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population. 

Interviewing was carried out during 2nd – 13th September 2019.

The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%.

Results for the Consumer Confidence Barometer are normally available on the last working day of each month at 00.01am (unless the final working day of a month is a Monday, in which case the results are published on the Friday preceding the final working day). The release date for October is Thursday 31st October 2019.

Any published material requires a reference to both GfK and the European Commission e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK on behalf of the European Commission’.

This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 2006.  

The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:   


Personal Financial Situation

(Q1/Q2)

This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How has the financial situation of your household changed over the last 12 months?’

‘How do you expect the financial position of your household to change over the next 12 months?’ (a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse – a lot worse)

General Economic Situation

(Q3/Q4)

This index is based on the following questions to consumers: ‘How do you think the general economic situation in this country has changed over the last 12 months?’

‘How do you expect the general economic situation in this country to develop over the next 12 months?’

(a lot better – a little better – stay(ed) the same – a little worse - a lot worse)

Major Purchase Index

(Q8)

This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation, do you think now is the right time for people to make major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods?’

(right time – neither right nor wrong time – wrong time)

Savings

Index

(Q10)

This index is based on the following question to consumers: ‘In view of the general economic situation do you think now is?’ (a very good time to save – a fairly good time to save – not a good time to save – a very bad time to save)

(Commented on but not included in the Index Score)

Contact us
Joseph Staton  
Joseph Staton
Head of Media Measurement UK   
+44 20 7890 9092
 
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