GfK research shows Blair less popular than Corbyn and conservatives 20 points ahead

• Theresa May and the Conservatives lead Labour by 20 points in Business Insider / GfK voting intention survey
• If these results were repeated at a General Election, analysis by Martin Baxter at Electoral Calculus suggests that the Conservatives would win a majority of more than 160 seats.
• 48% of voters say they intend to vote Conservative. Only 28% say they will vote Labour.
• Tony Blair and Ed Miliband remain toxic to the Labour brand; voters actually prefer Jeremy Corbyn as leader when compared to other possible leaders of the party - though 53% would not consider voting for Labour under Corbyn compared to 45% that would not consider Labour under Yvette Cooper
• Brits do not regret the Brexit referendum: 45% to 41% say the EU referendum went the right way, and 52% say Brexit is either the most important issue on their minds for the June 8 election or the only issue
• Tactical voting will have little impact on the election: Only 11% of voters say they will vote for a non-preferred party in order to stop another party from winning.

Voting intention:

Q. If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? (changes from March)

• Conservative 48% (+7)
• Labour 28% (nc)
• Lib Dem 7% (nc)
• UKIP 5% (-7)
• Green 3% (-3)
• Other 8% (+2)

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

Research findings in detail

GfK surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,952 GB adults online between May 3rd to May 14th. Key findings include:

• The Conservatives lead the Labour Party by 20 points. Their rating of 48% represents a 7 point increase since GfK's last survey in March.
• As expected this increase comes at the expense of UKIP who have declined 7 points. Half (50%) of 2015 UKIP voters from 2015 now say they will vote Conservative.
• The Conservatives lead Labour among all social classes. AB (+27pts), C1s (+25pts), C2s (+21pts) and DEs (+10pts).
• Labour lead the Conservatives by 6 points among Remain voters but the Conservatives lead Labour among Leave voters by 48pts.
• If these results were repeated at a General Election, the Conservatives could expect a majority of around 162 according to Martin Baxter at Electoral Calculus.

Leader approval ratings

 Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way?

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

• Jeremy Corbyn has seen a significant improvement in his approval rating since March. 22% now approve of his performance as Leader of the Opposition which is up 5 points and 52% disapprove which is down 6 points. However, this still gives the Labour leader a negative approval rating overall of -30.
• In contrast Theresa May continues to be viewed favourably by British adults. 49% approve of the job she is doing as Prime Minister (+3 from March) and 33% disapprove. The number of British adults that approve of the job the Prime Minister is doing is more than double those that approve of the job Jeremy Corbyn is doing as Leader of the Opposition.
• As the Liberal Democrats struggle to breakthrough in the polls it is noted that 51% of British adults hold no opinion on the job Tim Farron is doing as Lib Dem leader.
• Likewise, half of British adults (50%) have no opinion on the job Paul Nuttall is doing as UKIP leader.

Commenting on these findings, GfK Research Director Keiran Pedley said:

“Jeremy Corbyn’s approval rating has improved since our last survey in March but it will be of little consolation to Labour supporters considering the Conservatives’ extremely large lead. It is too early to make specific predictions about what might happen on June the 8th with three weeks to go – surveys of this kind are a snapshot of opinion rather than predictions as the saying goes – however, given Theresa May’s strong approval ratings and the size of the Conservative lead it really would be a shock if the Conservatives didn’t win this General Election with a significantly increased majority.”

Labour leadership:

Q: Thinking about the Labour Party, would you consider voting for a Labour Party led by...? 

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

• British adults were asked whether they would consider voting for a Labour Party led by current Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and other past Labour leaders or hypothetical future ones.
• Brits were more likely to consider voting Labour under Jeremy Corbyn than Tony Blair. Jeremy Corbyn achieved a negative net consideration score of -22 but this was better than Tony Blair who achieved a score of -38.
• 31% of GB adults said that they would consider voting for a Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn and 53% said they would not. In contrast, 23% would consider voting for a Labour Party led by Blair and 61% would not. Interestingly, 40% of current Labour voters say that they would not consider voting for a Labour Party led by Blair.
• Yvette Cooper was the ‘least unpopular’ in our list. 45% said they would not consider voting Labour under her hypothetical leadership. 24% said that they would consider voting Labour if she was leader but a significant number (31%) said that they didn’t know – more than twice the number saying the same about Jeremy Corbyn.

Commenting on these findings, GfK Research Director Keiran Pedley said:

“These results cast doubt on how successful any political comeback by Tony Blair would be. Much has been written on Corbyn’s unpopularity but these results suggest that Tony Blair is even more unpopular with the public. His biggest problem in terms of political credibility is that he no longer has an obvious constituency in British politics. He is even divisive among Labour voters. Yvette Cooper’s numbers are interesting, she is clearly the least toxic of the Labour politicians we tested but it is fair to say that she remains something of an unknown quantity for now among the British public therefore voters are hardly clamouring for her to lead the Labour Party yet.”

Brexit

Q. How important is Brexit in deciding how you will vote at the upcoming General Election? (Among all indicating they will vote)

• Brexit is the only issue I am concerned about 11%
• I am concerned about many issues but Brexit is the most important 41%
• Brexit is no more or less important to me than other issues 34%
• Brexit is not really that important to me 6%
• Don’t know 8%

A majority of Brits (52%) say that Brexit is either the only issue or the most important issue in deciding how they will vote at the upcoming General Election.

This number is somewhat higher among potential Conservative voters (59%) than Labour voters (46%).

Among those saying Brexit is the only issue / or most important issue to them, the Conservatives lead Labour by 31 points.

Tactical voting:

Q. Thinking about how you will vote at the upcoming General Election, which of the following statements best describes you? (Among all indicating they will vote)

• I am voting for the party that is my preferred choice 71%
• I am voting for a party that is not my preferred choice to stop another party winning 11%
• Neither 8%
• Don’t know 9%

23% of current Lib Dem voters indicate that they are voting for a party that is not their preferred choice to stop another party winning.

However, overall there is little difference by Remain and Leave voters on this measure. 11% of Remain voters indicate that they are voting tactically versus 12% of Leave voters.

Download the full questionnaire here 

For more on the survey methodology and weighting

Download the data tables here

For more information about these results please contact our Research Director: Keiran.pedley(at)gfk.com 

Notes to editors

• GfK surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,952 GB adults aged 18+ online between May 3rd and May 14th, 2017
• Data were weighted to be representative of GB adults by age, gender, region, social grade and education. Data were also weighted by political interest, 2015 General Election vote and 2016 EU referendum vote in order to ensure a politically representative sample.
• For the purposes of voting intention figures, only those that say they are ‘certain to vote’ in the upcoming General Election are included.
• Above trend comparisons are made with another GfK survey conducted in March, 2017. Please note: GfK have made some minor alterations to their methodology since then to reflect the fact that a General Election is imminent. The sample is now weighted by education and there is a change in how we define voting intention. In March we required voters to have voted in the 2015 general election (if they were 21 or older) and to say they are reasonably certain they will vote in an upcoming election (8-10 on a 10-point scale) in order to be classified as a ‘likely voter’. We now require all respondents to be certain they will vote in the upcoming General Election (10 on a 10-point scale) and do not account for having voted at the general elections in 2015. This change has no impact on voting intention figures achieved, and capturing those ‘certain to vote’ is a better definition during a General Election campaign
• Figures may occasionally sum to 99% or 101% due to rounding.
• GfK is a full member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full data tables will appear on GfK’s website within 48 hours of this release

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