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Trends and Forecasting

Тенденції і прогнозування

Висока швидкість виходу на ринок нових товарів і послуг, а також скорочення їх життєвого циклу змушує компанії працювати на випередження. Купівельна поведінка споживачів змінюється швидше, ніж будь-коли.

Щоб досягти успіху, компаніям потрібні точні прогнози продажів, засновані на глибокому аналізі ситуації і найактуальніших купівельних і ринкових тенденціях.

Ми пропонуємо докладні прогнози споживчого попиту на технологічні продукти, а також аналіз трендів світового ринку технологій.

Наші прогнози засновані на найбільшій у світі вибірці точок продажів, доповненої знанням світового та регіональних ринків. Завдяки такому поєднанню наші клієнти отримують детальні та своєчасні прогнози майбутнього попиту, що показують, які товари, в якому обсязі, за якою ціною та де будуть купувати споживачі. 

Прогнози для інвесторів і ринків капіталу

Інституційні інвестори мають демонструвати позитивні результати. Для досягнення успіху компаніям потрібно наочне уявлення про всі значні тенденції на самому ранньому етапі. Їм потрібно отримувати достовірну інформацію про те, куди вкладати гроші. 

Ми пропонуємо інвесторам надійні прогнози, засновані на аналізі найбільшої в світі вибірки точок продажів. Ми передбачаємо та документуємо поворотні точки в споживчому попиті, надаючи докладний аналіз по компаніях технологічної, напівпровідникової галузей та галузі споживчих товарів тривалого використання.

Наші прогнози дозволяють надавати інвесторам ефективні рекомендації, підкріплені даними з надійних і законних джерел.

Latest insights

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    • 05/18/17
    • Consumer Goods
    • Trends and Forecasting
    • Global
    • English

    What your brand can do now to attract today’s moms

    Nothing is more central to society, or more relevant to the fates of so many brands, than the evolving partnership between moms and dads. Parents not only make an extraordinary number of purchase decisions – they also deeply influence the tastes of the generations that come after. But still parents struggle with work and family pressures – the stress of being so needed in so many places. According to ongoing GfK Consumer Life research, the contract between parents has shifted noticeably in recent years. Dads are playing a greater role in some of the chores, like food shopping – but moms are still more likely to hold down the family’s most cherished functions and spend more time with their family in the home. Together they are more likely to sit and talk, eat, and read, while fathers tend to spend more time outside of the home with their children – going to the movies, volunteering, and playing sports. Despite changes in the family dynamics, moms are actually as stressed as they have ever been, with over two-thirds with kids under 13 saying they experience stress and tension – a number that is dramatically higher than average. And today’s sources of mom stress are vastly different from nearly two decades ago; some of the fastest-rising causes are health, weight, noise and not getting enough sleep.

    Opportunities in relief valves

    Moms and dads alike need “relief valves” – activities or opportunities that help them refresh, re-orient, and put down their burdens for a minute or three. This need offers powerful opportunities to marketers. Moms understand what’s truly important to their health and well-being, for example; but they fall short on following through, which exacerbates stress and fuels the vexatious mom-guilt. Smart, mom-centric marketers can offer real-time coaching to not only ignite a boost for healthier behaviors, but also help moms (and dads) stay on track. Whether the solution is smart health-tracking technology or product packaging that helps moms remember their nutrition, marketers can and should “be there” for over-tired moms of today.

    Looking to the future

    Now, a new wave of moms is coming, and they are undoubtedly different from the moms of today. According to the GfK MRI data, the youngest moms today (ages 18-25) are more apt to be minorities, work tirelessly on most weekends, juggling family and work lives under tremendous pressure. And GfK Consumer Life (Roper Reports) shows that these new moms are more driven. But they always give their best effort and value working hard, seeking fulfillment in what they do for a living. These new moms also need to feel secure and empowered about the brands they choose. The new wave of moms is considerably more likely to claim that they only buy products and services that speak to their beliefs, values or ideals. So, looking at some of today’s youngest moms, how can marketers anticipate the moms of tomorrow? How can they keep their brands strong and top of mind in a fast-paced and fragmented world of media, super-connectivity and hyper personalization?
    • First, stay with moms through close and consistent tracking of their likes and dislikes.
    • Keep close watch on the still-transforming contract between parents – which also means understanding young men and women alike, before they have families.
    • Do not add to their stress – provide outlets and escapes from their daily activities and struggles.
    • And show them that their efforts do lead to fulfillment; do not frustrate or ignore them at key moments.
    As always, attentive brands are also the smartest, making decisions that will build customer loyalty for generations to come. Are you on board? Jola Burnett is a Vice President on the Consumer Life team at GfK. She can be reached at hbspt.cta.load(2405078, 'd3be8aa9-840a-4e4b-9ef6-87b070ef210a', {});
    • 05/11/17
    • Technology
    • Trends and Forecasting
    • Global
    • English

    Looking for the future of mobile? Take a trip to Beijing

    ‘You can do without a wallet in Beijing these days but not without a smartphone.’ This came from the cab driver who picked me up at Beijing International airport when I landed with my mother last fall for the first trip back to my home country (and hometown) in years. He was completely right. Over the following weeks, I grew a renewed appreciation for my iPhone (now powered by a local SIM card), and constantly found myself pulling it out for all the things I had never used it for – to help open a bank account (you have to have a local mobile number and a phone that can at least receive authentication codes to be able to open an account in China), to make online reservations at restaurants (many of them don’t take reservations over the phone), to book an online appointment at a local salon and get a nice discount for the visit, to use an app to call cabs (Didi, the world largest ride-hailing service with nearly 400 million users across 40 cities in China), and of course, to make in-store purchases by scanning QR codes. Having followed and reported on tech trends for years, I was prepared for the role of smartphones in China. However, being there to experience and witness the smartphone culture first-hand, I still couldn’t help but constantly marvel at how involved my fellow citizens are today with their beloved phones.
    • Chinese are now the most engaged mobile phone users globally: Many visitors to China would probably share my amazement at Chinese consumers’ high smartphone engagements. According to data from GfK Consumer Life, Chinese today use their mobile phones to do more than their peers in any of the other 21 countries covered in our global study. On average, 61% of online Chinese consumers age 15+ did at least seven out of fourteen consistently tracked activities on their mobile phones in the past month, from social networking to online banking. This compares with 57% in South Korea, 34% in the US, and 32% in the UK.
    • Older consumers drive the latest growth: It’s no longer just tech-savvy younger Chinese who are inseparable with their phones. Increasingly, it’s their grey-haired parents – and grandparents – as well.

      The biggest increase in mobile phone engagement since 2014 came from older Chinese age 50+, whose growing fascination with their phones was visible when we toured around Beijing. From restaurants to buses to community parks, I was always able to spot seniors being totally immersed in the little screens in their palms. By the end of our trip, my mom’s group of 70-80 year-old friends had convinced her to install WeChat, China’s massively popular mobile social networking app with now 889 million users. And content sharing to her account has been flowing non-stop ever since.
    • China dwarfs the US in mobile commerce and payments: Our taxi driver wasn’t kidding when he said that you can survive in China’s large cities without a traditional wallet, as long as you’re equipped with a mobile one.

      From tiny street vendors to large supermarkets, numerous retailers of all types in Beijing accept mobile payments, often through popular apps Alipay and WeChat Pay. China’s relatively low plastic card penetration also contributes to the appeal of mobile wallets as a convenient non-cash alternative.

      Of course, smartphones are used not only for in-store payments, but online purchases. The latest data from GfK Consumer Life indicates that 61% of online Chinese mobile phone users used their handsets to buy something online in the past month, up 17 pts from 2014. This compares with 28% of American users, up 7 pts in the same time period. Last year, China’s biggest online shopping day Single’s Day raked in an eye-popping $17.8 billion in sales, with 82% coming from mobile transactions. To put that into perspective, last year’s record-setting Cyber Monday rang in $3.45 billion, with mobile accounting for around one-third of that revenue.
    • Chinese companies on the rise in mobile technologies: Chinese consumers’ high engagement with their smartphones can be attributed in part to the innovative solutions from local tech giants.

      Tencent’s WeChat, launched in 2011, has built itself into a ‘super app’ that allows users to not only make video calls and group chat, but shop, make payments, book a hotel, hail a ride and play games all on one intuitive platform. Its ‘super app’ approach is often seen as inspiring even to tech giants in the West.
    With a willing consumer and increasingly sophisticated local players, China is poised to continue to lead the evolution of the mobile culture. Brands trying to crack the Chinese market must recognize the essential role of mobile in the lives of these consumers. And for those curious about the future of mobile technologies, China – not the US – may be the closest to offer a glimpse. Veronica Chen is Vice President at GfK Consumer Life. To share your thoughts, please email or leave a comment below. [1]GfK PoS Measurement, 2016, Sales Units, USA and Mexico not included
    • 05/10/17
    • Trends and Forecasting
    • Global
    • English

    Globally, concern for the environment is rising – and this has implications for brands

    Breaking news — people like clean air and water! Now get the fainting couch — sometimes people may even think about the environment when making a purchase decision! Sarcasm aside, it is easy to become jaded about people’s true levels of engagement with the environment and how this translates into purchase decisions. We’ve been tracking these fickle attitudes towards environmental consciousness, a.k.a. ‘green’ awareness, since the early 1970s, through GfK MRI’s Survey of the American Consumer® and the GfK Consumer Life Worldwide Study. Generally, attitudes towards the environment track fairly closely with the state of the economy, i.e. good economy equals more concern for the environment, people willing to pay or make sacrifices for ‘green’ products.

    Environmental concern rising in markets around the world

    Currently, we are seeing the tide of environmental concern rise in many markets around the world.  From GfK’s Consumer Life Worldwide Study, averaged across 18 countries, 34% cite environmental pollution as one of the three things they are most concerned about.  This is up from 26% in 2011 and is now the #3 concern, behind “money enough to live right and pay the bills” (36% in 2016) and “inflation and high prices” (35% in 2016). In the US, recent GfK MRI data shows people increasingly see global warming as a serious threat.  It is important to note, however, that buying behavior for selected categories – mostly home products like light bulbs and cleaning liquids — has remained flat since 2010, according to GfK MRI.  Still, concern/awareness is up, which can be a precursor to increased purchasing behavior. So what does this mean for brands?  Here are three considerations to guide your efforts:
    1. Consider how (not if) environmental responsibility fits into your brands DNA. Remember, the environment may not be a major purchase driver for certain products or your target audience. For example, a ‘green’ laundry detergent will hold a different position in the minds of consumers when compared with other products. Still, regardless of your brand’s proposition,  you are not off the hook, though what you address and how you communicate efforts may differ.
    2. What shade of green is your customer? There are persistent and wide variations in awareness and concern among different groups – generations, parents versus non-parents, even pet owners and non-pet-owners.  For example, in the US, GfK MRI shows that consumers are slightly more likely now than in 2010 to give up convenience in return for a product that is environmentally safe – a trend more pronounced among 18 to 24 year olds. Knowing how important environmental responsibility is to your target group could prove a key to market success.
    3. Think beyond your product. It isn’t just about what people buy, but also what they do (e.g., recycling, consuming less overall). Educate and inspire consumers in ways that go beyond making a purchase to impact their experience with your brand.
    Though some might believe otherwise, we are indeed in a period of rising environmental concern. The question is, will brands see this as an opportunity to connect. Tim Kenyon is Vice President on the Consumer Life team at GfK. He can be reached at
    • 04/27/17
    • Travel and Hospitality
    • Market Opportunities and Innovation
    • Trends and Forecasting
    • Global
    • English

    Almost twice as many people prefer relaxing vacations to active ones

    Internationally, 59 percent of people prefer a relaxing vacation, while 35 percent prefer an active one. Brazil, South Korea and Japan lead for favoring relaxing vacations; Italy, France and Spain lead for active holidays. Teenagers are the most energetic, with 43 percent preferring active vacations.
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