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Success story
Health|Market Opportunities and Innovation|United States|English

Driving informed investment decisions for a new treatment

21.09.2016

We collected extensive information on disease prevalence, diagnosis and treatment guidelines and the pricing and reimbursement landscape through desk research in the EU5

Situation

Before taking an in-licensing decision for a new drug targeting primary biliary cirrhosis and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, our client wanted to assess the commercial opportunity for the treatment. This required us to:

  • assess the size of the target population, the competitive landscape and the target product profile
  • evaluate the willingness to pay for new treatments, potential price opportunity, diagnosis and treatment rates, target treatment population size and likely market share
  • obtain actionable recommendations and a revenue forecast model to inform its decision

Approach

We collected extensive information on disease prevalence, diagnosis and treatment guidelines and the pricing and reimbursement landscape through desk research in the EU5 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK) and the USA.

Then, we used this information to develop primary research materials, including prereading material and a discussion guide and subsequently interviewed key opinion leaders, physicians and payers in the scope markets.

Finally, we built a forecast model based on realistic assumptions of market performance.

Outcome

Our final forecast model and report covered multiple scenarios for the drug we assessed.
This enabled our client to make an informed investment decision.

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Timothy A J Fitzgerald
General