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Slight growth in German retail in 2016

Bruchsal, 15.06.2016

GfK prognosis for Germany's retail turnover in 2016

GfK forecasts a slight nominal growth of 0.8 percent in Germany's stationary retail turnover. The study reveals that retail potential varies significantly from region to region.

The study "GfK Retail Turnover 2016" is a prognosis of point-of-sale turnover in Germany. According to the new study, Germany's 2016 stationary retail turnover will amount to €411.3 bil. GfK's retail experts anticipate that stationary retail will experience a slight nominal increase of 0.8 percent compared to the previous year.

Regional distribution of turnover in Germany
Germany's most populated districts continue to generate the most turnover. Metropolitan areas such as Berlin, Hamburg and Munich top the turnover rankings:

Top 10 districts according to total retail turnover


rank

urban district / rural district

inhabitants

retail turnover in mil. €

share as a % of total stationary retail turnover

1

Berlin UD

3,469,849

18,033.0

4.38%

2

Hamburg UD

1,762,791

11,016.5

2.68%

3

Munich UD

1,429,584

10,662.1

2.59%

4

Cologne UD

1,046,680

7,026.5

1.71%

5

Hannover region

1,128,037

6,600.4

1.60%

6

Frankfurt am Main UD

717,624

4,235.5

1.03%

7

Düsseldorf UD

604,527

4,183.3

1.02%

8

Stuttgart UD

612,441

4,165.6

1.01%

9

Nuremberg UD

501,072

3,529.1

0.86%

10

Dortmund UD

580.511

3,419.7

0.83%

source: GfK Retail Turnover Germany 2016; UD = urban district; RD = rural district

The top 10 districts together comprise 17.7 percent of Germany's total stationary retail turnover. This is a further increase over the figure for previous years. Strong retail locations are thus exerting an increased drawing power on consumers.

Retail sites in large cities have an excellent chance to achieve optimal market presence, strong demand and high turnover volume. But there is already an excess offering in these locations for many segments and target groups, in addition to a lack of suitable retail real estate.

Given Germany's saturated market, select mid-sized cities continue to grow in importance as sites of interest to retailers interested in optimizing or expanding their networks. Mid-sized cities that attract many shoppers from surrounding areas enjoy per-capita turnover volumes twice the national average of €5,065.

Top 10 districts according to per-capita retail turnover


rank

urban district / rural district

inhabitants

retail turnover per inhabitant in €

retail turnover index*

1

Straubing UD

46,027

10,457

206.4

2

Passau UD

49,952

10,415

205.6

3

Würzburg UD

124,219

10,270

202.8

4

Weiden i.d.OPf. UD

41,817

10,032

198.0

5

Schweinfurt UD

51,610

9,715

191.8

6

Rosenheim UD

60,889

9,482

187.2

7

Landshut UD

67,509

9,300

183.6

8

Kempten (Allgäu) UD

65,624

9,178

181.2

9

Trier UD

108,472

9,067

179.0

10

Regensburg UD

142,292

8,860

174.9

source: GfK Retail Turnover Germany 2016; UD = urban district; RD = rural district ; * 100 = national average

Note: The per inhabitant values comprise a purely mathematical benchmark, because retail at these respective locations is by no means driven only by local inhabitants. Insight into the drawing power of the regions in question can be gained by correlating retail turnover with population size.

About the study
GfK Retail Turnover reveals the regional distribution of stationary retail turnover. In contrast to GfK Retail Purchasing Power, which is calculated at consumers’ places of residence, GfK Retail Turnover is calculated at the locations at which sales are made. GfK Retail Turnover is defined as the turnover of the retail trade, excluding motor vehicle and fuel sales as well as mail-order retail, but including retail-related turnover from bakeries, confectionaries and butchers.

GfK annually calculates GfK Retail Turnover for every regional level as a total sum as well as per inhabitant in euros and as an index (German average = 100). These calculations are carried out for all of Germany's urban and rural districts, postcodes and municipalities with more than 10,000 inhabitants.

The study "GfK Retail Turnover" is also available for many other European countries.

Print-quality illustrations can be found here.

About GfK
GfK is the trusted source of relevant market and consumer information that enables its clients to make smarter decisions. More than 13,000 market research experts combine their passion with GfK’s long-standing data science experience. This allows GfK to deliver vital global insights matched with local market intelligence from more than 100 countries. By using innovative technologies and data sciences, GfK turns big data into smart data, enabling its clients to improve their competitive edge and enrich consumers' experiences and choices.
Additional information can be found at www.gfk.com.
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Responsible under press legislation / V.i.S.d.P.
GfK GeoMarketing GmbH
Public Relations
Cornelia Lichtner
Werner-von-Siemens-Str. 9
Gebäude 6508
76646 Bruchsal; Germany
T+49 7251 9295 270
cornelia.lichtner@gfk.com

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