The Brand Simulator is a program for analysis based on a statistical model which can predict the effects of various marketing mix strategies on the sales of products in the area of FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) for a period of one year at the most.
The marketing mix variables can be varied as appropriate for simulation purposes: Prices, distribution and promotions can be changed by brand, retail outlet and time-period, as can television advertising in terms of brand and time. In this way, market shares, sales and changes in buying patterns for instance at different prices can be calculated, and as a result the impact of changes in the components of the marketing mix can be estimated. For a forecast, the different parts of the model are merged to a complex model. So the Brand Simulator can calculate the predicted number of purchase acts and amounts by household, brand, retail outlet and week. In terms of time, periods of varying duration are possible, with the shortest period being weeks or months. It is also possible to merge without restriction retail outlets and brands, and then to analyse them. In addition to forecasting purchase acts and quantities, the Brand Simulator also calculates price elasticities and price cross-elasticities. Moreover, groups of buyers can be assigned to different loyalty classes. With the due-to-analysis procedure, developments such as for instance an increase in volume sales can be analysed into their component parts. This makes it possible to explain what percentage of an increase in sales is for instance caused by a lower price and what percentage by promotions or television advertising.
The Brand Simulator is based on GfK Consumer Panel data and therefore makes segmentation possible among various household groups. This makes the Brand Simulator a tool for analyzing the most different situations at low costs. Choosing an optimal concept gives an advice on how to act.
Dr. Susanne Wigger-Spintig
Tel. +49 911 395-24571
Fax +49 911 395-4093
susanne.spintig@gfk.com