Nuremberg, 19.05.2016

China driving global smartphone sales growth

 

 

  • North America posts 4% YOY growth in units sold
  • Low-end smartphones continue to drive market volume growth
  • Increases in average selling price partially offset volume decline in the saturated Western Europe market

Global demand for smartphones in 1Q 2016 remained positive, standing at six percent year-on-year. This was helped by continued low-end segment growth in the majority of emerging regions, despite weak economies across the globe. Only China experienced strong growth (up 19 percent year-on-year), driven by increased operator subsidies aimed at spurring 4G adoption.

 

Smartphone sales 1Q 2015 vs. 1Q 2016

 

 

Units sold (in mil.)

Sales value (in bn. US$)

 

1Q15

1Q16

Y/Y  percent change

1Q15

1Q16

Y/Y  percent change

Western Europe

31.8

30.0

-6%

12.5

11.9

-5%

Central & Eastern Europe

16.9

17.1

+1%

3.4

3.5

+3%

North America

43.5

45.4

+4%

17.3

18.1

+5%

Latin America

27.9

24.8

-11%

7.3

6.5

-11%

Middle East & Africa

39.9

42.0

+5%

11.1

10.4

-6%

China

92.0

109.2

+19%

27.3

32.1

+18%

Developed APAC

19.5

18.7

-4%

11.4

10.9

-4%

Emerging APAC

47.8

50.0

+5%

8.2

7.9

-4%

Global

319.3

337.2

+6%

98.5

101.3

+3%

Source: GfK Point of Sales (POS) Measurement data in 90+ markets, May 2016

               

North America: Aggressive operators drive growth in 1Q

In North America, smartphone demand returned to growth in 1Q 2016, following a dip in the last quarter of 2015. In total, 45.4 million units were sold, down 19 percent quarter-on-quarter and up four percent year-on-year. The rise in demand was helped by aggressive operator marketing and sales efforts.

However, there are signs that this will not continue at the same level because of the cost. In addition, consumer migration to 4G is in the last quartile of its adoption curve. Traditionally, that is when subscriber retention activities become more important than acquisition, lengthening smartphone replacement cycles.

Kevin Walsh, director of trends and forecasting at GfK comments, “Quarter one shows continued smartphone growth, however, we are seeing a slowdown in growth rates when we compare year-on-year performance. As a result, we have downgraded our 2016 growth forecast to five percent year-on-year. Operators and manufacturers are responding with a variety of strategies in the different regions, such as increased marketing activity and subsidies.”

China: Strongest growth in demand for almost two years

Smartphone demand in China reached 109.2 million in 1Q 2016, up two percent quarter-on-quarter and 19 percent year-on-year. This is the strongest year-on-year growth in demand in two years.

The desire for 4G is behind the impressive growth, with 4G smartphone demand in 1Q 2016 up 58 percent year-on-year. Increased operator subsidy support and the falling cost of data plans have made 4G smartphones more attractive and affordable. More than 95 percent of smartphones sold in the first quarter of 2016 were 4G enabled.

Overall, total smartphone demand in China will be 411 million units in 2016, up seven percent year-on-year.

Smartphones: 2015 sales vs. 2016 forecast

 

 

Units sold (in mil.)

Sales value (in bn. US$)

 

2015 sales

2016 forecast

Y/Y  percent change

2015 sales

2016 forecast

Y/Y  percent change

Western Europe

137.3

133.6

-3%

53.6

51.1

-5%

Central & Eastern Europe

73.4

77.1

+5%

14.8

14.7

-1%

North America

190.8

197.4

+3%

78.0

76.9

-1%

Latin America

110.3

97.2

-12%

27.1

23.4

-14%

Middle East & Africa

162.6

182.7

+12%

42.1

42.4

+1%

China

385.3

411.5

+7%

115.8

120.4

+4%

Developed APAC

73.5

67.3

-8%

43.1

38.4

-11%

Emerging APAC

201.1

229.5

+14%

32.9

33.4

+2%

Global

1,334.2

1,396.3

+5%

407.4

400.7

-2%

About GfK

GfK is the trusted source of relevant market and consumer information that enables its clients to make smarter decisions. More than 13,000 market research experts combine their passion with GfK’s long-standing data science experience. This allows GfK to deliver vital global insights matched with local market intelligence from more than 100 countries. By using innovative technologies and data sciences, GfK turns big data into smart data, enabling its clients to improve their competitive edge and enrich consumers’ experiences and choices.

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